5:00 AM EDT Thu Oct 10: NE at 18 mph: 976 mb: 85 mph - Milton moving off east coast
Posted by cypresstx on 10/10/2024, 7:00 am
| https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/#Milton https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2024/MILTON.shtml?  BULLETIN Hurricane Milton Advisory Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 500 AM EDT Thu Oct 10 2024 ...MILTON MOVING OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST... ...STILL PRODUCING DAMAGING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL IN EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.5N 80.5W ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM NE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM NW OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: All Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings have been discontinued for the west coast of Florida. The Tropical Storm Warning for all of the Florida Keys and from the Palm Beach-Broward County Line southward have been discontinued. The Hurricane Watch for Martin County and Lake Okeechobee have been discontinued. The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued from Anclote River to Middle of Longboat Key, including Tampa Bay. The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued from Bonita Beach to Flamingo. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Florida west coast from Bonita Beach northward to Middle of Longboat Key, including Charlotte Harbor * Sebastian Inlet Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia, including the St. Johns River A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Florida east coast from the St. Lucie/Martin County Line northward to Ponte Vedra Beach A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Florida east coast south of the St. Lucie/Martin County Line to the Broward/Palm Beach County Line * North of Ponte Vedra Beach Florida to Edisto Beach South Carolina * Extreme northwestern Bahamas, including Grand Bahama Island, the Abacos, and Bimini A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Milton was located near latitude 28.5 North, longitude 80.5 West. Milton is moving toward the northeast near 18 mph (30 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue today, followed by a turn toward the east tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Milton will move away from Florida and to the north of the Bahamas today. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected, but Milton is forecast to become a powerful extratropical low tonight. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km). A sustained wind of 75 mph (121 km/h) and a gust to 83 mph (134 km/h) was recently reported at a Weatherstem station in Marineland. A sustained wind of 61 mph (98 km/h) and a gust to 76 mph (122 km/h) was recently reported at a Weatherstem station on South Hutchinson Island. A sustained wind of 60 mph (97 km/h) and a gust of 87 mph (140 km/h) was recently reported at Daytona Beach International Airport. The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations is 976 mb (28.82 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Milton can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Sebastian Inlet, FL to Altamaha Sound, GA...3-5 ft St. Johns River...2-4 ft Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...2-4 ft Charlotte Harbor...2-4 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the south of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge. RAINFALL: Additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are expected across portions of the east-central to northeast Florida coast through this morning. This rainfall will continue to bring the risk of considerable flash and urban flooding, along with moderate to major river flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane Milton, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. WIND: Hurricane conditions are occurring within the hurricane warning area in Florida. Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the tropical storm warning areas in Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, and the Bahamas. SURF: Swells generated by Milton are expected to continue to affect portions of the southeast U.S. and the Bahamas during the next couple of days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Mahoney Hurricane Milton Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 500 AM EDT Thu Oct 10 2024 Milton moved quickly across central Florida overnight, producing significant flooding and damaging winds near its path. The center of the hurricane is now exiting the state near Cape Canaveral, and the worst conditions have shifted to east-central and northeastern Florida. The initial intensity is set to 75 kt based on Doppler radar velocity data and surface observations, with the strongest winds likely occurring just offshore of east-central Florida. Milton is expected to remain a hurricane a little longer, but the models are in good agreement that it will develop frontal characteristics by tonight, and therefore, the official forecast shows the system becoming extratropical in 24 hours. The extratropical low is expected to gradually weaken and dissipate in about 4 days. The NHC intensity forecast is in best agreement with the GFS model, which typically performs better than the standard hurricane models for transitioning systems. The hurricane is moving quickly northeastward between a trough just to its west and a ridge near the Greater Antilles. A turn to the east is expected to occur soon as the flow becomes more zonal, taking the system to the north of the Bahamas later today and south of Bermuda on Saturday. The NHC track forecast is a little faster than the previous one to be in better agreement with the latest models. Key Messages: 1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge along the coast from east-central Florida northward to southern Georgia, where a Storm Surge Warning remains in effect. 2. Damaging hurricane-force winds, especially in gusts, will continue for a few more hours in east-central and northeastern Florida. Residents are urged to remain in an interior room and away from windows. 3. Heavy rainfall across the central to northern Florida Peninsula through this morning continues to bring the risk of considerable flash and urban flooding along with moderate to major river flooding, especially in areas where coastal and inland flooding combine to increase the overall flood threat. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0900Z 28.5N 80.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 10/1800Z 29.3N 78.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 11/0600Z 29.6N 74.2W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 11/1800Z 29.6N 70.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 12/0600Z 29.7N 67.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 12/1800Z 29.9N 63.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 13/0600Z 30.6N 60.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 14/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |
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