Re: Tue AM TWO: 0/40% over 2/7 days
Posted by
Chris in Tampa on 10/30/2024, 10:48 pm
The GFS has been all over the place with this one for seemingly a week. And sometimes it develops another one more.
From a variety of the models, it seems like something will form in the western Caribbean. At the moment, and subject to change, they take it more northwest earlier on. It's usually not showing it heading off into the Atlantic ultimately like it had been. But it's still possible it can be anywhere from Central America, the Gulf to out into the Atlantic after going over some of the Greater Antilles. And it might be that something else in the region develops instead. On some runs I can't follow what is what. Whether it is this or something else perhaps nearby that develops.
As we have gotten further out in time, it hasn't become clearer yet, which is why I guess they remain at 40%. Development keeps being not exactly imminent. It might be many days until we have a potential invest where they can at least point to some kind of broad center.
It's hard to really make sense of the models, with some seeming like we could be talking about this 10 days from now still, whether with a final landfall or some with it still not making a final landfall yet and being beyond that model's timeframe. They have done a lot of flipping all over the place and intensity is unclear of course too.
Glad you got some rain. It's amazing how some places have gone the entire month without rain. I was reading this last week:
https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2024/10/october-is-aiming-to-smoke-u-s-records-for-dryness-and-warmth/
Not sure if some of the places have remained so dry. Some have not, from the headline...
"Philadelphia, Atlanta, and Nashville may get their first-ever calendar month without a single raindrop or snowflake."
Atlanta just got a trace:
https://www.wsbtv.com/weather/dry-streak-ends-atlanta-gets-trace-rain-first-time-since-sept-29/7GSFUNNKUBB4VOK763PBXDWY4I/
Philadelphia seems like they got a trace on October 24th:
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=phi
Nashville is forecast to get rain on Halloween.
But some might still beat or tie their driest month.
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Tue AM TWO: 0/40% over 2/7 days -
cypresstx,
10/29/2024, 9:24 am Post A Reply