Some of the other global models were showing it too yesterday and today. However, the GFS has had some of the craziest tracks and swings I've seen. I used to not pay much attention to the long range GFS developing things from the Central American gyre or in that area from something. But since some started forming, and it didn't seem to do it as often, I thought maybe they fixed it some. I see the NHC had to throw another X on the board since the GFS is showing, at times, possible development instead from another area in the Caribbean. Or both. And sometimes the two tango around. I don't think anything can be gleaned from the GFS right now, but I guess since some of the other global models show something too, it's more likely than not. Timing might, and likely is, off, but who knows. It kept getting delayed, at least in the GFS. But I didn't notice when the other models started showing something too.
Naturally though, some runs have shown a Florida impact, sometimes from the newest yellow X in the Carib. It hasn't been strong in recent runs though. But nothing really means much at this point as the runs are all over the place and not much sense can be made. Only takeaway, maybe something might form. |