| The hurricane models at the moment are weak at landfall along the northern Gulf coast, or close to it, through 126 hours. HAFS-A, HAFS-B and HWRF are all about a 40mph tropical storm at landfall. That might be too low, but hopefully it will be a tropical storm. SHIPS does show increasing shear late in the forecast period: https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/?C=M;O=D Clicking latest file at the top with "AL1824" in it. 1pm EST Monday SHIPS intensity text output... * GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EIGHTEEN AL182024 11/04/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 46 52 59 65 75 81 86 86 80 70 58 48 40 38 36 31 V (KT) LAND 40 46 52 59 65 75 81 80 80 73 64 52 42 34 32 30 25 V (KT) LGEM 40 45 50 54 59 70 79 78 81 76 70 61 52 46 41 37 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 7 5 6 3 1 6 11 15 13 13 15 18 16 27 33 50 60 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 -5 -1 0 0 -3 0 -1 12 9 6 -2 4 3 5 9 SHEAR DIR 281 256 267 291 334 238 261 276 289 273 277 261 236 220 240 287 282 SST (C) 30.0 30.0 29.9 30.0 29.9 29.4 27.2 28.8 27.4 27.8 28.4 28.4 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.3 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 169 170 168 170 168 159 127 148 128 132 141 140 127 126 125 124 120 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.0 -52.2 -52.2 -51.8 -52.0 -51.7 -51.9 -51.8 -52.0 -52.2 -52.4 -52.5 -51.6 -51.7 -52.7 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.8 1.1 1.2 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.0 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 3 1 0 0 1 700-500 MB RH 79 78 80 77 78 74 64 58 55 52 47 46 42 33 31 25 19 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 15 17 17 19 19 22 23 22 20 16 11 7 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 110 106 98 89 88 83 56 55 66 37 11 3 -7 -29 -70 -43 -36 200 MB DIV 91 75 66 81 103 90 82 29 49 7 20 -5 16 -18 0 -22 -42 700-850 TADV -2 -1 0 3 7 2 1 5 2 5 8 11 4 4 -10 -6 -28 LAND (KM) 303 200 112 59 83 194 31 73 225 351 394 295 216 190 182 167 115 LAT (DEG N) 15.1 16.0 16.8 17.7 18.5 20.2 22.1 23.5 24.5 25.2 25.9 26.5 27.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 76.4 77.0 77.5 78.3 79.1 80.9 82.5 83.8 85.0 86.1 87.3 88.3 89.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 11 11 12 12 10 8 7 6 6 5 5 4 2 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 80 77 71 73 76 76 46 56 36 32 33 23 14 13 12 11 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 6 CX,CY: 2/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 512 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 47.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 16. 19. 20. 21. 22. 22. 20. 19. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 3. -1. -5. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 2. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 6. 1. -6. -13. -18. -18. -18. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 7. 11. 16. 16. 13. 8. 3. -2. -5. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 12. 19. 25. 35. 41. 46. 46. 40. 30. 18. 8. 0. -2. -4. -9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 15.1 76.4 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182024 EIGHTEEN 11/04/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 13.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 11.3 46.9 to 6.8 0.89 8.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 75.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.49 3.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.65 4.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 2.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.30 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 45.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.88 3.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 83.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.52 2.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.0 27.0 to 143.0 0.84 2.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 59% is 5.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 42% is 6.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 6.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 43% is 9.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 50% is 10.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 55% is 10.4 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.4% 59.2% 41.6% 24.0% 10.9% 43.2% 49.5% 55.0% Logistic: 15.3% 62.7% 40.1% 30.6% 18.7% 50.0% 45.2% 42.1% Bayesian: 9.5% 60.6% 18.8% 13.2% 7.8% 42.9% 24.3% 7.2% Consensus: 10.7% 60.9% 33.5% 22.6% 12.5% 45.4% 39.7% 34.7% DTOPS: 6.0% 18.0% 6.0% 3.0% 2.0% 5.0% 5.0% 9.0% SDCON: 8.3% 39.4% 19.7% 12.8% 7.2% 25.2% 22.3% 21.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL182024 EIGHTEEN 11/04/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182024 EIGHTEEN 11/04/2024 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 2( 2) 5( 7) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 3( 3) 5( 8) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 46 52 59 65 75 81 80 80 73 64 52 42 34 32 30 25 18HR AGO 40 39 45 52 58 68 74 73 73 66 57 45 35 27 25 23 18 12HR AGO 40 37 36 43 49 59 65 64 64 57 48 36 26 18 16 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 36 46 52 51 51 44 35 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT I wish I knew how to interpret all that, but it might be that the storm weakens so much at the end it is no longer trackable very well, enough to get coordinates. Under "MODEL VTX (KT)" it eventually says "LOST". For "LAND (KM)", I looked at older SHIPS text products and that number eventually goes negative. So in 168 hours it is still 115 km from land. What I wish is that shear was noted a lot higher earlier on. Shear, at least in that, is rather low for 120 hours, below 20 knots. It's below 10 knots for 48 hours which is why NHC says they might have to increase the intensity forecast over that period. But the really high shear kicks in later. 27 knots at 132 hours, 33 knots at 144 hours. And then extremely high, 50 to 60 knots. We'll have to see how that changes over time, if the timing changes on the shear. It seems like it might be a strong hurricane earlier on, perhaps even a major hurricane, based on some of the upper intensity estimates from the models. I was looking at some of the simulated IR products at Tropical Tidbits, like this from the GFS: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=18L&pkg=ir (Might have to click different run time to see it) It shows a formidable looking storm earlier on. Then as it approaches the northern Gulf it really starts to fall apart. I never like to count on shear in case the timing is off. But, this is late in the season, so there is reason to be optimistic that it will be weaker than if this were a month ago. As you said, we'll have to watch. In the meantime though, Cayman Islands and Cuba could be dealing with a strong storm. I would still be cautious in Key West too though. (where there is a tropical storm watch) Although looking at a map, I guess Key West doesn't extend as far west as I thought it does. "The storm has jogged a bit to the right of the previous track, and the initial motion is estimated 010/8 kt." It's not exceptionally organized yet, so I would say that possible reformations or unexpected movement could still occur for now. Wider satellite view: https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G16§or=car&band=13&length=24 Recon: https://hurricanecity.com/recon/ Those winds on the west side are pretty weak. It doesn't have a strong circulation yet. So that could have an impact, the movement now or any reformation, on the path later. |