Tropical Storm Rafael Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024
400 PM EST Tue Nov 05 2024

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and
radar data from Grand Cayman indicate that Rafael has developed an
inner wind core during the past several hours. The radar data shows
the development of a ragged eye, and the Hurricane Hunter reported
850-mb flight-level winds of 73 kt about 30-35 n mi northeast of the
center. The aircraft also reported that the central pressure has
fallen to near 989 mb. Based on these data, the initial intensity
is increased to 60 kt. The wind radii have been revised some based
on the aircraft data.

The initial motion is northwestward at 325/13 kt. Rafael is
currently on the southwestern side of a low- to mid-level ridge over
the western Atlantic, and this feature should steer the cyclone
generally northwestward for the next 36-48 h, with the center
passing near the Cayman Islands and over western Cuba. From 48-72
h, the models are in better agreement that the center should turn
more westward as the ridge builds a little westward along the
northern Gulf coast. After 72 h, there remains some significant
spread in the track guidance, due partly to differences in how fast
Rafael will shear apart and due partly to differences in the
forecast strength of the ridge along the Gulf coast. The GFS
weakens the ridge and shows a northward turn, while the ECMWF keeps
a stronger ridge and shows a more westward motion. The
deterministic UKMET has now changed to a northward turn scenario,
but the HWRF, HMON, and UKMET ensemble mean join the ECMWF with a
westward motion. As mentioned with the previous forecast, until
there is a clearer signal on which of these scenarios is more
likely, the forecast compromises between these extremes with a slow
turn toward the north over the northern Gulf of Mexico.

Now that Rafael has developed an inner wind core, conditions are
favorable for steady to rapid strengthening during the next 24 h or
so. The system is expected to reach hurricane strength during
the next several hours as it passes through the Cayman Islands with
additional strengthening before it reaches Cuba. While the peak
intensity forecast is near the high end of the intensity guidance,
there is a chance that Rafael could get stronger than currently
forecast. Once the center is north of 25N in the Gulf of Mexico,
the cyclone is likely to encounter increasing vertical wind shear,
dry air entrainment, and cooler sea surface temperatures, which
should lead to Rafael weakening and eventually shearing apart
vertically. This part of the intensity forecast lies near or just
above the intensity consensus.


Key Messages:

1. Rafael is forecast to be a hurricane when it passes near or over
the Cayman Islands during the next 12 hours, where damaging
hurricane-force winds, a dangerous storm surge, and destructive
waves are expected. Additional strengthening is expected before
Rafael reaches western Cuba and the Isle of Youth on Wednesday. A
hurricane warning is in effect for this region, where damaging
hurricane-force winds, life-threatening storm surge, and destructive
waves are also expected.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Lower and Middle
Florida Keys beginning Wednesday and Wednesday night.

3. It is too soon to determine what, if any, impacts Rafael could
bring to portions of the northern Gulf Coast. Residents in this
area should regularly monitor updates to the forecast.

4. Rafael will bring areas of heavy rain across portions of the
western Caribbean through early Thursday, including Jamaica and the
Cayman Islands, along with southern and western portions of Cuba.
Flash flooding and mudslides are possible along the higher terrain
in Jamaica and Cuba.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/2100Z 19.1N 79.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 06/0600Z 20.5N 80.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 06/1800Z 22.5N 82.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 07/0600Z 24.1N 83.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 07/1800Z 25.0N 85.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 08/0600Z 25.4N 86.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 08/1800Z 25.8N 87.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 09/1800Z 27.1N 90.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 10/1800Z 28.8N 90.7W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Rafael Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024
400 PM EST Tue Nov 05 2024

...RAFAEL STRENGTHENING AS IT HEADS TOWARDS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM EST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.1N 79.6W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM E OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM WNW OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Meteorological Service of Jamaica has discontinued the Tropical
Storm Warning for Jamaica.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Cayman Islands
* Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque,
Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Sancti Spiritus,
and Ciego de Avila
* Lower and Middle Florida Keys from Key West to west of the
Channel 5 Bridge
* Dry Tortugas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Camaguey and Las Tunas

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in Cuba, the Florida Keys, and the southern
Florida Peninsula should monitor the progress of Rafael.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM EST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rafael was
located near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 79.6 West. Rafael is
moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A general
northwestward motion is anticipated over the next two to three
days. On the forecast track, the storm is expected to move near or
over the Cayman Islands this evening and tonight, be near or over
western Cuba on Wednesday, and move into the southeastern Gulf of
Mexico by Wednesday night.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph
(110 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady to rapid intensification is
expected during the next 24 hour or so, and Rafael is expected to
become a hurricane during the next several hours as it passes near
the Cayman Islands with further strengthening before it makes
landfall in Cuba.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated from the Hurricane Hunter
aircraft data is 989 mb (29.21 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Rafael can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header
WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands by
this evening and are also expected in western Cuba and the Isle of
Youth on Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in parts
of west-central Cuba and the lower and middle Florida Keys on
Wednesday and Wednesday night. Tropical Storm conditions are
possible farther east in central Cuba on Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall will impact areas of the western Caribbean
through early Thursday, particularly across Jamaica and the Cayman
Islands into southern and western portions of Cuba. Rainfall totals
between 3 to 6 inches are expected, with isolated higher totals up
to 10 inches anticipated across areas of higher terrain, which could
lead to areas of flash flooding and mudslides.

Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected for the Lower and
Middle Florida Keys.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Rafael, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by 1 to 3 feet
above normal tide levels in the Cayman Islands on Tuesday, and
could raise water levels by as much as 6 to 9 feet above normal
tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the southern coast of
Cuba in the Hurricane Warning area, including the Isle of Youth.

The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally
dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving
inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following
heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Dry Tortugas...1-3 ft
Lower Florida Keys...1-2 ft

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible Wednesday over the Keys and
far southwestern Florida mainland.

SURF: Swells generated by Rafael are expected to affect much of
the western Caribbean during the next few days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM EST.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM EST.

$$
Forecaster Beven