Hurricane Rafael Intermediate Advisory Number 10A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024
100 AM EST Wed Nov 06 2024

...RAFAEL STRENGTHENING...
...FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY UNTIL LANDFALL IN WESTERN CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM EST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.2N 80.9W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM NNE OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM SSE OF HAVANA CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Cayman Islands
* Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque,
Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Sancti Spiritus,
and Ciego de Avila
* Lower and Middle Florida Keys from Key West to west of the
Channel 5 Bridge
* Dry Tortugas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Camaguey and Las Tunas

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed
to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in Cuba, the Florida Keys, and the southern
Florida Peninsula should monitor the progress of Rafael.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM EST (0600 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Rafael was located
by an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft and Grand Cayman radar
near latitude 20.2 North, longitude 80.9 West. Rafael is moving
toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A general
northwestward motion is anticipated over the next day or so,
followed by a gradual west-northwestward turn in the Gulf of Mexico.
On the forecast track, Rafael is expected move over western Cuba
later today, and move into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico tonight.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h)
with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast, and Rafael is
forecast to become a Category 2 hurricane before it makes landfall
in Cuba later today. Rafael could briefly weaken over Cuba but is
then expected to emerge into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico as a
hurricane.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105
miles (165 km).

The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Hurricane
Hunter aircraft observations is 977 mb (28.85 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Rafael can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header
WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in portions of the Cayman
Islands for the next few hours and are also expected in western Cuba
and the Isle of Youth today. Tropical storm conditions are
expected in parts of west-central Cuba and the lower and middle
Florida Keys today and tonight. Tropical storm conditions are
possible farther east in central Cuba today.

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall will impact areas of the western Caribbean
through early Thursday, particularly across Jamaica and the Cayman
Islands into southern and western portions of Cuba. Rainfall totals
between 3 to 6 inches are expected, with isolated higher totals up
to 10 inches anticipated across areas of higher terrain, which could
lead to areas of flash flooding and mudslides.

Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected for the Lower and
Middle Florida Keys.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Rafael, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by 1 to 3 feet
above normal tide levels in the Cayman Islands tonight, and
could raise water levels by as much as 6 to 9 feet above normal
tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the southern coast of
Cuba in the Hurricane Warning area, including the Isle of Youth on
Wednesday.

The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally
dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving
inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following
heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Dry Tortugas...1-3 ft
Lower Florida Keys...1-2 ft

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today over the Florida
Keys and far southwestern Florida mainland.

SURF: Swells generated by Rafael are expected to affect much of the
western Caribbean during the next few days and will also spread
across most of the Gulf of Mexico from east to west late this week
into the early part of the weekend. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM EST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch