| It has weakened quickly so far. It's weird to see a storm passing across the center of the Gulf weakening a lot like it is. Just an odd track for this time of year. We'll see if it continues. The NHC mentions lower shear and the SSTs will be increasing, though with dry air. NHC has it becoming a depression, while SHIPS intensity text output (https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/?C=M;O=D) keeps it just a bit over tropical storm strength. Tropical Storm Rafael Discussion Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 300 AM CST Sat Nov 09 2024 Latest satellite images show Rafael has continued to burst deep convection throughout the early morning hours, although shear has impacted the symmetry of the convective canopy. The convection is displaced to the northwest of the low-level center, as aircraft reconnaissance reported earlier, and was further confirmed by a scatterometer pass around 0230 UTC. There have been no microwave passes tonight to assist with the storm structure. Satellite intensity estimates continue to run higher than the flight level winds from the earlier aircraft data, as they struggle to keep up with the rapid weakening. Given shear has continued to disrupt the circulation, the initial intensity is set to 55 kt for this advisory, which is near the latest UW-CIMSS satellite consensus. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system in a few hours which will help better assess the storm structure and intensity. Rafael remains over the warm waters of the central Gulf of Mexico, with vertical wind shear and drier air impacting the storms structure. While the shear may decrease some after 36 h, relative humidities will drop below 40 percent around the same time which will lead to steady weakening. Given the unfavorable atmospheric conditions the latest NHC intensity forecast continues to show steady weakening and follows the latest global model fields showing Rafael becoming a depression by 48 h and degenerating to a remnant low pressure area soon after that, although this could occur sooner than is currently forecast. The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwest or 285/5 kt. A ridge to the north of the storm should continue to steer it slowly west-northwestward for the next 24-36 h. After that, the track guidance continues to come into agreement with the system meandering and eventually moving south to southwestward within the low-level wind flow as the system weakens. The latest NHC forecast was shifted slightly towards the latest simple and corrected-consensus aids. Key Messages: 1. Swells generated by Rafael are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along the Gulf Coast for the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0900Z 25.0N 90.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 09/1800Z 25.1N 91.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 10/0600Z 25.4N 92.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 10/1800Z 25.3N 92.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 11/0600Z 24.7N 92.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 11/1800Z 23.9N 92.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 12/0600Z 23.1N 92.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 13/0600Z 21.0N 93.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 14/0600Z 19.6N 94.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Kelly |