1am EDT Tuesday: 30% in 48 hours; 70% in 7 days
Posted by Chris in Tampa on 11/12/2024, 5:57 am
A cool front will lower the temperatures some in Florida, even down to Fort Myers (and lesser extent Miami), so maybe it might help the water temps fall a tiny bit. Though it probably wouldn't help too much since it's warmer to the south.

I add water temperature in legend here for station readings:
https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/map/index.html?region=Florida

GFS:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=watl&pkg=mslp_wind

Euro:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=watl&pkg=mslp_wind

They both develop it.

GFS Ensemble:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens&region=watl&pkg=lowlocs

Euro Ensemble:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=eps&region=watl&pkg=lowlocs

Ensemble members are all over the place of course. Something to watch, a week before Thanksgiving.




Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 AM EST Tue Nov 12 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Central and Western Caribbean Sea:
A tropical wave over the central Caribbean Sea is producing an area
of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for development, and a tropical depression will
likely form late this week as the system moves westward into the
western Caribbean Sea. After that, the disturbance is expected to
slow down and meander through the weekend. Interests across the
western Caribbean Sea should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.


Forecaster Bucci
1
In this thread:
Western Caribbean - 0/40% over 2/7 days - cypresstx, 11/11/2024, 8:26 am
Post A Reply
More HTML
Add Image (Tutorial)
Embed Video or other Social Media
This feature works for YouTube (videos), X (formerly Twitter) (tweets), Facebook (posts, photos and videos), Instagram (posts and videos), Threads (posts), Bluesky (posts), Imgur (images and videos) and NHC Audio Briefings (mp3 files).

X (formerly Twitter) Options:
In our testing, you can't post an Instagram and Threads post in the same message. One of the site's embeds will not load.

Due to how Bluesky content must be embedded to do it automatically, technical errors may sometimes make it impossible to automatically embed it for you. If you have any issues, turn that option off and embed the content manually if you wish to do so.
Add Emoji
 Smile
 Happy
 Cool
 Grin
 Tongue
 Surprised
 Sleepy
 Drool
 Confused
 Mad
 Sad
 Cry
Automatic Options