| NHC: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ At 7pm EST Tuesday they upped the 48 hour chances to 70%. 7 day Atlantic outlook: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=7 I noticed their archive of the outlooks is broke when you go to "Archived Outlooks" and try to access older ones. You can go down to: "List of Atlantic Outlooks (May 2023 - Present)" To get the text of some of the older ones in the list, but the recent images aren't working to go along with them. Satellite floaters: https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/products/ocean/tropical/floaters/99L/99L_floater.html https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/storm.asp?storm_identifier=al992024 GFS: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=watl&pkg=mslp_wind Euro: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=watl&pkg=mslp_wind GFS Ensemble: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens®ion=watl&pkg=lowlocs Euro Ensemble: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=eps®ion=watl&pkg=lowlocs Recon will be there Wednesday afternoon. NOUS42 KNHC 121803 REPRPD WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL. 0105 PM EST TUE 12 NOVEMBER 2024 SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD) VALID 13/1100Z TO 14/1100Z NOVEMBER 2024 TCPOD NUMBER.....24-165 I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS 1. SUSPECT AREA (WESTERN CARIBBEAN) FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 71 FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 72 A. 13/1900Z A. 14/1130Z B. AFXXX 01JJA INVEST B. AFXXX 0219A CYCLONE C. 13/1500Z C. 14/0800Z D. 16.5N 77.5W D. 16.8N 80.8W E. 13/1830Z TO 13/2200Z E. 14/1100Z TO 14/1430Z F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT G. LOW-LEVEL INVEST G. FIX H. NO WRA ACTIVATION H. NO WRA ACTIVATION 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: A. CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND IS A THREAT. B. POSSIBLE NOAA 42 P-3 TAIL DOPPLER RADAR MISSION INTO THE SUSPECT AREA FOR 15/1200Z, DEPARTING KLAL AT 15/0800Z. C. POSSIBLE NOAA 49 G-IV SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION AROUND THE SUSPECT AREA FOR 15/1200Z, DEPARTING KLAL AT 15/0530Z. II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS 1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS. 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE. NOTE: THE ATLANTIC WINTER SEASON REQUIREMENTS ARE NEGATIVE. THE PACIFIC WINTER SEASON REQUIREMENTS ARE AS FOLLOWS: 1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS. 2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE. 3. ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK: A USAF WC-130J AIRCRAFT MAY FLY AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS MISSION OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC FOR THE 16/0000Z SYNOPTIC TIME. From Plan of the Day: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/recon.php Recon: https://hurricanecity.com/recon/ NHC Surface Forecasts: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/#:~:text=Surface%20Forecasts While storms get rarer this time of year, the water is just so warm in the Caribbean. Various Bluesky posts, some of which may show some older model runs. |