| Track: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/?cone#contents Satellite floaters: https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/floater.php?stormid=AL192024 https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/products/ocean/tropical/floaters/19L/19L_floater.html https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/storm.asp?storm_identifier=al192024 There's still a lot of uncertainty short term, such as whether it stays more offshore or not. But rainfall is forecast to be a lot either way sadly. Total rain forecast from: GFS: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=watl&pkg=apcpn Euro: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=watl&pkg=apcpn But as for the wind, there would be a significant difference if it were a little further north of the track where it is over more water. It could make a lot of difference to areas of Honduras along the coast, but also to Belize (or Mexico if it were further north) which could get a much stronger storm making landfall. They'll have to be prepared for stronger winds too in case it is. The models are pretty tightly clustered along the coast. GFS Ensemble: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens®ion=watl&pkg=lowlocs Euro Ensemble: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=eps®ion=watl&pkg=lowlocs Could go either way. GFS ensemble is a bit more varied. You can see pressures of ensemble members further north over water more have a lower number. One has a 65 for example that is north of Belize and that would be a 965mb pressure. I'm not saying it will go that north, just pointing out how to read those. (hard to read those as it's pretty zoomed out and things are clustered close) As for long term, with it interacting with land, it might not have an opportunity to take advantage of the very warm waters to intensify in terms of wind. (rain is going to be bad down there of course) But if it then moves into the Yucatan, the Gulf isn't as warm. For it to be powerful later it would need to hold whatever intensity it built up in the Carib and carry it over more. If that doesn't happen, which along the current NHC forecast it would not, it would be a weaker storm than had it stayed much more over that warmest water. It could possibly be a hurricane in the Gulf, but hopefully it would be a tropical storm or category one at most. That's still too long term though to know. But for now the models that go out that far are generally a tropical storm at most. https://hurricanecity.com/models/models.cgi?basin=al&year=2024&storm=19&display=wind_diagram&latestrun=1 SHIP model pretends there is no land. DSHP is for taking land into account. (helpful I guess in cases if an island might be missed and you want to see how it would maintain itself perhaps) Interpolated models are a little stronger for NAVGEM, but those are based on older runs, such as 12 hours ago, so generally things are just a tropical storm longer term. (assuming it hits the Yucatan and didn't do something like stay over water as it moves north) NHC shifted a bit west they said, but not as much as some of the models. (in case they were to change some back probably) Tropical Depression Nineteen Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024 400 AM EST Thu Nov 14 2024 The satellite presentation of the system has gradually been improving. The latest subjective intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are both T-2.0/30 kt. Based on the subjective Dvorak estimates and the improvement in the convective structure noted on satellite imagery, the system is upgraded to a tropical depression. This is supported by data from the Indian Oceansat scatterometer, which shows a well-defined circulation. The intensity is set to 30 kt based on the Dvorak estimates. Tropical Depression Nineteen has been moving faster, just south of due west, or 265/14 kt, although it should begin slowing down later today. A mid-level ridge centered to the north of the depression over the Straits of Florida should keep it on a westward track until Friday, taking the system near the north coast of eastern Honduras, and possibly inland. After that, the ridge is expected to break down, and the models agree that the cyclone will meander in weak steering currents late Friday through the weekend. This expected slow motion will cause the system to produce heavy rains over the same region, likely causing life-threatening flooding over portions of Central America. By early next week, ridging should become re-established over Florida and the eastern Gulf of Mexico, which should cause the system to move northwestward across Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula. Very little change was made to the first 3 days of the track forecast. Beyond day 3, there has been a notable westward shift in the track guidance. The NHC forecast is a bit west of the previous forecast beyond day 3, but not as far west as the bulk of the latest model guidance. Environmental conditions are conducive for intensification during the next day or two while the system remains over water, with low vertical wind shear and relatively high mid-level humidities. However, there is a significant amount of uncertainty in how much land interaction with Honduras occurs. The majority of the models are showing the center move just barely inland over Honduras, or parking it right on the coastline, between hour 48 and 72. However, if the system stays offshore, as shown by the latest HWRF model solution, it could take advantage of the conducive atmospheric and oceanic conditions and continue to strengthen. The latest NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one through 36 h, but then is about 5 kt lower than the previous forecast since this forecast shows a bit more land interaction beyond 36 h. The latest NHC intensity forecast is above the high end of the guidance envelope beyond 36 h. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Through early next week, heavy rainfall will cause significant, life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides across portions of Central America, particularly Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, and western Nicaragua. 2. The disturbance is forecast to be near hurricane strength when it moves near the eastern coast of Honduras on Friday and Saturday. Hurricane watches and tropical storm warnings are in effect for portions of that area. 3. The system is forecast to approach Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico at or near hurricane strength by early next week where there is a risk of dangerous storm surge and damaging winds. Residents in these areas should monitor the latest forecast updates and ensure that they have their hurricane plan in place. 4. It is too soon to determine what impacts the system could bring to portions of the eastern Gulf of Mexico, including Florida, the Florida Keys, and Cuba during the middle portion of next week. Residents in these areas should regularly monitor updates to the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0900Z 15.9N 81.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 14/1800Z 15.9N 83.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 15/0600Z 16.0N 84.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 15/1800Z 16.1N 85.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 16/0600Z 15.9N 85.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 60H 16/1800Z 15.9N 85.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 72H 17/0600Z 15.9N 85.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 96H 18/0600Z 17.1N 87.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER 120H 19/0600Z 20.4N 89.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Hagen Tropical Depression Nineteen Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024 400 AM EST Thu Nov 14 2024 ...POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE BECOMES TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED IN HONDURAS LATER THIS WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 400 AM EST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.9N 81.7W ABOUT 280 MI...455 KM E OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM ENE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Punta Castilla to the Honduras/Nicaragua Border * The Bay Islands of Honduras A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta Sal to the Honduras/Nicaragua Border * The Bay Islands of Honduras A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Honduras/Nicaragua Border to Puerto Cabezas A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in Honduras, and in Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM EST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nineteen was located near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 81.7 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h). This motion should continue through today, taking the system across the western Caribbean Sea. The depression is expected to stall and meander near the north coast of Honduras late Friday and through the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later today and continue strengthening, if it remains over water. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Tropical Depression Nineteen can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml RAINFALL: Through early next week, rainfall amounts of 10 to 20 inches with isolated storm totals around 30 inches area expected over northern Honduras. This rainfall will lead to widespread areas of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza. Elsewhere across the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, and western Nicaragua, Tropical Depression Nineteen is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with localized totals around 15 inches through early next week. This will result in areas of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along with the potential of mudslides. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Depression Nineteen, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205755.shtml? rainqpf#contents WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area by Friday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area and possible in the watch area beginning late today. STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds along the northern coast of Honduras. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM EST. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM EST. $$ Forecaster Hagen |