| Track: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/?cone#contents Forecast to dissipate over the Yucatan. Satellite floaters: https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/floater.php?stormid=AL192024 https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/products/ocean/tropical/floaters/19L/19L_floater.html https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/storm.asp?storm_identifier=al192024 Gulf satellite: https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G16§or=gm&band=13&length=24 Radar from Belize: https://bmcnoldy.earth.miami.edu/tropics/radar/ Tropical Storm Sara Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024 300 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2024 The center of Sara is nearing the coast of Belize. Satellite and radar images indicate that the storm's convective pattern remains ragged with patches of deep convection occurring to the north and east of the center. The objective and subjective Dvorak estimates range from 25 to about 40 kt, and based on that data, the initial wind speed is held at 35 kt. The storm is moving slowly west-northwestward at 4 kt. A building ridge over the eastern Gulf of Mexico should cause the system to move faster to the west-northwest during the next day or so. This motion should bring the center of Sara to the Belize coast late this morning or around midday. Although a 24-hour forecast point is provided, most of the models show Sara opening into a trough by then over northern Guatemala and the Yucatan Peninsula. Sara is expected to hold steady in strength until it reaches the coast, but weakening is expected after the system moves inland. Sara has produced a tremendous amount of rain in Honduras. Data from the country's government indicate that there has been some reports of around 40 inches of rain. These heavy rains are now spreading westward across portions of Belize, Guatemala, and the Yucatan Peninsula. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Through early next week, heavy rainfall from Tropical Storm Sara will cause potentially catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides over northern portions of Honduras. 2. Elsewhere across Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo, heavy rainfall will cause significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. 3. Tropical storm conditions, especially in gusts, are expected during the next several hours along portions of the northern coast of Honduras, the Bay Islands, the Caribbean coast of Guatemala, the coast of Belize, and portions of the coast of Mexico where tropical storm warnings are in effect. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0900Z 16.8N 87.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 17/1800Z 17.3N 88.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 18/0600Z 18.6N 90.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi Tropical Storm Sara Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024 300 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2024 ...HEAVY RAINS SPREADING INLAND OVER PORTIONS OF BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 300 AM CST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.8N 87.8W ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SSE OF BELIZE CITY MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The Northern coast of Honduras from Punta Castilla westward to the Honduras-Guatemala border * The Bay Islands of Honduras * The Caribbean Sea coast of Guatemala * The coast of Belize * The coast of Mexico from Puerto Costa Maya southward to Chetumal A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests elsewhere in the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM CST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sara was located near latitude 16.8 North, longitude 87.8 West. Sara is moving toward the west-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h) and this general motion with some increase in forward speed is expected through tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Sara will make landfall in Belize late this morning or around midday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is anticipated until landfall. Weakening is forecast after the storm moves inland, and dissipation is expected over the southern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula tonight or Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Tropical Storm Sara can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml RAINFALL: Through early next week, rainfall amounts of 15 to 25 inches with isolated storm totals around 40 inches area expected over northern Honduras. This rainfall will lead to widespread areas of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza. Elsewhere across the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo, Tropical Storm Sara is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with localized totals around 15 inches through early next week. This will result in areas of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along with the potential of mudslides. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Sara, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205755.shtml? rainqpf#contents WIND: Tropical storm conditions, especially in gusts, are expected in the warning area in portions of Honduras, Guatemala, Belize, and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next several hours. STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds along the northern coast of Honduras. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. A storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above ground level near and to the north of where the center of Sara crosses the coast of Belize. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM CST. Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |