Google's AI Weather Model
Posted by Chris in Tampa on 12/7/2024, 10:07 pm
Message modified by a board administrator (Chris in Tampa) on 12/8/2024, 1:55 am
About it:
https://deepmind.google/discover/blog/gencast-predicts-weather-and-the-risks-of-extreme-conditions-with-sota-accuracy/

Technical journal article:
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-024-08252-9

News articles about it:
https://www.google.com/search?q=GenCast&tbm=nws

From first link:
To rigorously evaluate GenCast's performance, we trained it on historical weather data up to 2018, and tested it on data from 2019. GenCast showed better forecasting skill than ECMWF's ENS, the top operational ensemble forecasting system that many national and local decisions depend upon every day.

We comprehensively tested both systems, looking at forecasts of different variables at different lead times — 1320 combinations in total. GenCast was more accurate than ENS on 97.2% of these targets, and on 99.8% at lead times greater than 36 hours.
The news articles make it sound like it's really good, but it would be nice to see what it can do in real time head to head against other models. Especially for tropical cyclones. If they ever had it public in real time, where the actual coordinates in text format were released for a tropical cyclone track, I would add it to the model system. I doubt it though. But it would be interesting to see it in some way. I guess it would be an ensemble with various members it sounds like. Though an average between them would be nice too.

It got one year pretty good for some samples, now I want to see it in real time consistently compared to other models. I didn't read the journal article so I don't know about the technical details of it.
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Google's AI Weather Model - Chris in Tampa, 12/7/2024, 10:07 pm
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