HPC Discussion
Posted by
JAC on 6/10/2009, 6:19 am
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 214 PM EDT TUE JUN 09 2009 PATTERN EVOLUTION-FORECAST IS MORE COMPLICATED OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN. IN THIS AREA THE MODELS DISAGREE ON RISK OF CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE INDUCED/INVERTED TROUGH. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWS A SMALL CYCLONE OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST OF HONDURAS. UNDER INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...AND IN INTERACTION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...THE GFS FORECASTS THIS SYSTEM TO RETAIN ITS INTEGRITY WHILE LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARDS JAMAICA THROUGH 36-42 HRS. THE GFS THEN FORECASTS THE CYCLONE TO STALL. THE NAM INITIALLY FOLLOWS A SIMILAR EVOLUTION...THEN FORECASTS THE LOW TO MIGRATE WEST TO SOUTH OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS BY 78 HRS. THE ECMWF FAILS TO INITIALIZE THE LOW...AND TRIES TO DEVELOP A CLOSED CIRCULATION OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN BY 54-60 HRS. THIS SYSTEM IS IN A HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...SO IT IS SOMEWHAT QUESTIONABLE THAT IT MIGHT SURVIVE/INTENSIFY AT THE PACE THE GFS/NAM INDICATE. CONDITIONS MIGHT BE MORE FAVORABLE AFTER 48/60 HRS WHEN THE UPPER LOW CUTS OFF AND THE INFLOW OF COLD AIR ALOFT STARTS TO WANE. MEANWHILE...THE SURFACE CYCLONE WILL FAVOR ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION OVER NORTHEAST HONDURAS WHERE WE EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. MOST INTENSE IS EXPECTED OVER WATER...AND AS THE WEAK VORTEX MIGRATES TOWARDS JAMAICA THROUGH 36 HRS IT WILL FAVOR A SURGE IN ACTIVITY. AS A RESULT...BETWEEN 24-60 HRS...WE EXPECT ACCUMULATION OF 20-40MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 150-250MM TO AFFECT JAMAICA... HAITIAN PENINSULA AND PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA. CONVECTION MIGHT PERSIST INTO DAY 03...BUT THIS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON INTENSITY/INTEGRITY OF THE SURFACE CYCLONE. WE ARE GOING FOR HEAVY RAINS ON DAY 03...AS A WORST CASE SCENARIO...BUT THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. THE MAXIMA WILL PERSIST AT 150-250MM...WITH POSSIBILITY OF EXPANDING TOWARDS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
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In this thread:
GFS & CMC Back on for West Carib Development -
JAC,
6/10/2009, 5:56 am- SCATs show LLC at 12N 76W - JAC, 6/11/2009, 7:47 am
- I just noticed - Cat5 Gen is at 29C - JAC, 6/10/2009, 8:42 pm
- Tagged 1009mb at 11N 80W - JAC, 6/10/2009, 6:58 pm
- HPC puts genesis 42 to 54 hrs near San Andres Is - JAC, 6/10/2009, 3:28 pm
- CMC has genesis Saturday with a deep Warm-Core in the GOM - JAC, 6/10/2009, 2:05 pm
- NHC getting bead on it - JAC, 6/10/2009, 1:52 pm
- WindSAT shows LLC at 11N 77W - JAC, 6/10/2009, 12:00 pm
- This Morning's WV - JAC, 6/10/2009, 8:32 am
- HPC Discussion - JAC, 6/10/2009, 6:19 am
- Shear starts to diminish in 48 hrs - JAC, 6/10/2009, 6:13 am
- NAM on Board - JAC, 6/10/2009, 6:02 am
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