HPC puts genesis 42 to 54 hrs near San Andres Is
Posted by JAC on 6/10/2009, 3:28 pm
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
230 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2009



THE PATTERN EVOLUTION/FORECAST OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO PUZZLE THE MODELS. CYCLOGENESIS AS THE GFS
FORECASTED HAS FAILED TO MATERIALIZED. IN EACH CYCLE THE GFS
DELAYS ONSET BY 12-18 HRS...AND THE LATEST RUN IS NOT THE
EXCEPTION. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO FORESEE A MUCH SLOWER
EVOLUTION...AND THIS IS STARTING TO LOOK AS THE BEST OPTION. THE
EARLIEST WE MIGHT SEE A CYCLONE FORMING IS GOING TO BE AT 42-54
HRS...WITH A LOW FORMING NEAR SAN ANDRES ISLAND...TO THEN PULL
NORTH TOWARDS JAMAICA/THE CAYMAN ISLES BY 66-72 HRS. ALTHOUGH THE
SYSTEM IS SLOW TO DEVELOP...CONDITIONS FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION
REMAIN FAVORABLE ACROSS JAMAICA-PORTIONS OF HAITI AND THE
SOUTHEAST COAST OF CUBA. IN THIS AREA EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
20-40MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 150-250MM. WE MIGHT SEE A LULL IN
ACTIVITY ON DAY 02...WITH ANOTHER SURGE ON DAY 03 AS THE SURFACE
CYCLONE BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED. BUT OVERALL...THIS REMAINS A
HIGH UNCERTAINTY FORECAST.



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GFS & CMC Back on for West Carib Development - JAC, 6/10/2009, 5:56 am
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