HPC puts genesis 42 to 54 hrs near San Andres Is
Posted by
JAC on 6/10/2009, 3:28 pm
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 230 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2009
THE PATTERN EVOLUTION/FORECAST OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO PUZZLE THE MODELS. CYCLOGENESIS AS THE GFS FORECASTED HAS FAILED TO MATERIALIZED. IN EACH CYCLE THE GFS DELAYS ONSET BY 12-18 HRS...AND THE LATEST RUN IS NOT THE EXCEPTION. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO FORESEE A MUCH SLOWER EVOLUTION...AND THIS IS STARTING TO LOOK AS THE BEST OPTION. THE EARLIEST WE MIGHT SEE A CYCLONE FORMING IS GOING TO BE AT 42-54 HRS...WITH A LOW FORMING NEAR SAN ANDRES ISLAND...TO THEN PULL NORTH TOWARDS JAMAICA/THE CAYMAN ISLES BY 66-72 HRS. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM IS SLOW TO DEVELOP...CONDITIONS FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION REMAIN FAVORABLE ACROSS JAMAICA-PORTIONS OF HAITI AND THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF CUBA. IN THIS AREA EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 20-40MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 150-250MM. WE MIGHT SEE A LULL IN ACTIVITY ON DAY 02...WITH ANOTHER SURGE ON DAY 03 AS THE SURFACE CYCLONE BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED. BUT OVERALL...THIS REMAINS A HIGH UNCERTAINTY FORECAST.
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In this thread:
GFS & CMC Back on for West Carib Development -
JAC,
6/10/2009, 5:56 am- SCATs show LLC at 12N 76W - JAC, 6/11/2009, 7:47 am
- I just noticed - Cat5 Gen is at 29C - JAC, 6/10/2009, 8:42 pm
- Tagged 1009mb at 11N 80W - JAC, 6/10/2009, 6:58 pm
- HPC puts genesis 42 to 54 hrs near San Andres Is - JAC, 6/10/2009, 3:28 pm
- CMC has genesis Saturday with a deep Warm-Core in the GOM - JAC, 6/10/2009, 2:05 pm
- NHC getting bead on it - JAC, 6/10/2009, 1:52 pm
- WindSAT shows LLC at 11N 77W - JAC, 6/10/2009, 12:00 pm
- This Morning's WV - JAC, 6/10/2009, 8:32 am
- HPC Discussion - JAC, 6/10/2009, 6:19 am
- Shear starts to diminish in 48 hrs - JAC, 6/10/2009, 6:13 am
- NAM on Board - JAC, 6/10/2009, 6:02 am
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