here Hou/Gal discussion
Posted by
CypressTX on 6/10/2009, 7:31 pm
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=HGXAFDHGX
.DISCUSSION...
MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MOVES EAST. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN
GENERALLY ANCHORED OVER TEXAS FOR THE NEXT 7 TO 10 DAYS. THE RIDGE
WILL OSCILLATE BUT GENERALLY REMAIN OVER THE STATE. HEIGHTS WILL
SLOWLY BUILD SO THINK TEMPS WILL SHOW A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.
THINK OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN WET WARM AS WELL. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND NAM 12 SURFACE FIELDS SUPPORT MAX TEMPS OVER 100
DEGREES FRI/SAT BUT JUST CAN`T QUITE PULL THE TRIGGER ON SUCH WARM
TEMPS SO WILL TRIM A FEW DEGREES. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL EXCEED
105 DEGREES OVER THE WEEKEND AND COULD EXCEED 108 DEGREES OVER THE
SOUTHWEST ZONES. WITH THE RIDGE IN PLACE...AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH
DAY TO DAY CHANGE...ONLY A GRADUAL WARMING. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE
MANAGED TO DEVELOP IN THE FAST LOW LEVEL FLOW. STILL DECIDING
WHETHER TO MENTION A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHEAST ZONES THIS
EVENING. COVERAGE LOOKS VERY LIMITED SO WILL PROBABLY LEAVE OUT.
LONG TERM...A RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS. CONTINUED
HOT TEMPERATURES WILL WITH VERY LOW RAIN CHANCES. HUMIDITY WILL
REMAIN ON THE HIGH SIDE SO AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE
APPROACHING DANGEROUS LEVELS. THE 12Z ECMWF SHIFTS THE UPPER RIDGE
TO THE EAST BY NEXT WEEKEND ALLOWING ANY DISTURBANCES IN THE GULF
TO PUSH IN TO TEXAS. THE GFS KEEPS THE RIDGE IN PLACE. AT THIS
TIME...FEEL THE GFS IS ON THE RIGHT TRACK AND WILL LEAN TOWARD THE
STRONG RIDGE REMAINING IN PLACE. 43
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