Hope it dodges you again today
Posted by JAC on 6/13/2009, 4:09 pm


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1095
  NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
  0240 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2009
 
  AREAS AFFECTED...SRN TX PNHDL INTO THE TX S PLAINS AND NWRN TX
 
  CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
 
  VALID 131940Z - 132115Z
 
  SEVERE STORM THREAT WILL INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING
  WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE
  HAIL...TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS.  A WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED
  PRIOR TO 21Z.
 
  A COMPLEX SURFACE PATTERN HAS EVOLVED THIS AFTERNOON WITH PRIMARY
  SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NERN NM /N OF TCC/ ESEWD THROUGH
  THE SERN TX PNHDL ACROSS SRN OK.  FARTHER S...LBB RADAR IMAGERY AS
  OF 1920Z SHOWS A BOUNDARY DELINEATING A NWD SURGE OF WARMER AIR FROM
  ROOSEVELT COUNTY NM THROUGH BAILEY...NWRN LAMB INTO CASTRO COUNTIES
  TX.  ANOTHER WELL-DEFINED BOUNDARY...DELINEATING A WLY SURGE OF
  COOLER AIR EXTENDED SEWD FROM SRN SWISHER COUNTY THROUGH WRN FLOYD
  INTO CNTRL CROSBY COUNTY TX.
 
  3-HR SURFACE OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS INDICATE THAT THE STRONGEST
  BOUNDARY LAYER DRYING AND WARMING IS OCCURRING FROM THE TRANS-PECOS
  REGION THROUGH THE PERMIAN BASIN INTO THE TX S PLAINS...WHICH SHOULD
  CONTINUE TO BETTER-DEFINE THE DRYLINE E OF A LBB-MAF LINE BY LATE
  AFTERNOON.  VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A GROWING CUMULUS FIELD
  WITHIN THIS HOT...DRYING AIR MASS...SUGGESTING THAT CAP IS BECOMING
  INCREASINGLY WEAK.
 
  EXPECT TSTM DEVELOPMENT TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD WITHIN THE NEXT
  1-2 HOURS E OF DEVELOPING DRYLINE /LIKELY OVER THE LOW ROLLING
  PLAINS/ WITH STORMS RAPIDLY BECOMING SEVERE GIVEN THE MODERATE TO
  STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPE OF 2000-3000 J/KG.  CURRENT
  LBB VWP AND JAYTON PROFILER INDICATE 30-35 KT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WHICH
  WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS GIVEN THE STRONG INSTABILITY.
  VERY LARGE HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
  THOUGH A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY MORE INTENSE
  MESOCYCLONES.
 
  ..MEAD.. 06/13/2009
 
 
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North TX / OK Severe Weather this afternoon - JAC, 6/13/2009, 9:00 am
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