Gulf coast resident? ... this one bears watching
Posted by LawKat on 6/25/2009, 10:22 pm
The CMC likes this "blob" to be Ana and formidable, at that, within the next 5 days.  The current model takes the system into the big bend of Florida, BUT with all the variables at play, from Mexico's gulf coast to Key West need to monitor this one.

I definitely think that shear should relax north and west of this blob over the next 48 hours.  No pocket storm here.  This blob is in a historically favored and climatologically favored area. 

It is WAY too early of course, but with waters, just south of me at Dauphin Island, "boiling" at 85 degrees and the central Gulf recording temps of near 90 in places, the fuel is there. 

Now good ol' Jim has put Pascagoula on the high threat list, and that is of great concern because I live 10 miles due east of Pascagoula and 20 miles south of Mobile, another threat lister.  Is his bullseye coming early?  Let's hope not.

The big minus for me on this system is the lack of instability in the atmosphere, even coupled with the latent heat expected from a heated Gulf.  The Gulf, through June, has been mired under this huge dome of high pressure. 

48 hours from now, this "blob" should be near the Yucatan.  In 72 hours, it would be entering the extreme southern Gulf.  The CMC has this blob named in 84 hours and heading due north in the central Gulf before turning.
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17N82W (Blob!) - Target, 6/25/2009, 9:43 pm
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