Re: Static storm surge images from the SLOSH model at Wunderground
Posted by
Chris in Tampa on 9/11/2009, 3:06 pm
I think it is the combination of a storm coming from any direction.
From "Understanding SLOSH model output: MEOWs and MOMs" on the surge images page:
"MEOW plots are created for every category of storm moving in a particular direction, usually stratified by forward speed, storm size (radius of maximum winds), and tide elevation. If one takes the maximum storm surge height for all the MEOW plots at every grid cell, one can generate a worst-case storm surge for the coast for each Saffir-Simpson hurricane category: 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5. These so-called "Maximum Of the MEOWs", or "MOMs" are what are plotted in the SLOSH storm surge images on wunderground, and are the composite worst-case scenario storm surges from about 15,000 different hypothetical hurricanes for each SLOSH basin."
I think that means that they had a variety of scenarios in which they changed the direction, forward speed, and storm size. (Over 500 images they have but in those they have about 15,000 hypothetical hurricanes. Not 15,000 in each image, but in each area they have probably quite a lot.) In the Tampa examples, you would not have anything like that in some parts of Tampa Bay if the storm made landfall in Sarasota. North of Pinellas County, you would also not see that type of surge if the storm made landfall in Sarasota or probably even if it did hit just north of the entrance to the Bay. (but at that point then the Bay would get it) I think the images have to be interpreted based on the direction, forward speed, and storm size so that you know where the level will be high and where it will not be. It's not perfect though and still has subjectivity, but overall it is nice to know the approximate maximum you might expect for a particular point if the worst scenario happens. (Although I certainly think there could even be worst scenarios then noted. Example: Ike in 2008)
It is also worth noting this from the surge image page: "In the Mid-Atlantic states, "NGVD 1929" thinks mean sea level lies 0.5 - 1.9 feet below present-day mean sea level (PDF File). Thus, the actual surge will be 0.5 - 1.9 feet higher along the Mid-Atlantic coast than NGVD 29-based SLOSH model runs show."
I also overlooked it before but didn't notice they have historical storm surge images too:
http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/surge_anim.asp |
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