WPAC: TD19W (Pre-PEPENG) could be another big-boy
Posted by JAC on 9/28/2009, 8:15 am
May interact with TD18W












280900Z POSITION NEAR 9.3N 143.4E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 19W (NINETEEN) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 235 NM
SOUTH OF GUAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. THE SYSTEM REMAINS WEAK AND POORLY ORGANIZED. THE NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE FOR TD 19W IS VERY LIMITED DUE TO THE WEAK
DEVELOPMENT, ITS POOR ORGANIZATION AND ITS LIMITED HORIZONTAL
EXTENT. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS BASED ON VORTEX TRACKERS FROM WBAR,
EGRR, UKMO AND THE EXTENDED MODEL FIELDS FROM ECMWF. THE FORECAST IS
FURTHER COMPLICATED BY PROXIMITY TO TD 18W, WITH SEVERAL NUMERICAL
MODELS SHOWING INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS, WITH
TD 19W BECOMING THE DOMINANT CIRCULATION. THE INTERACTION BETWEEN TD
18W AND TD 19W IN THE NUMERICAL MODELS MAY BE A RESULT OF THE MODEL
RESOLUTION, VICE AN ACTUAL INTERACTION. THIS FORECAST REFLECTS THE
LATTER (NO INTERACTION BETWEEN TDS 18W AND 19W). THUS, THE TRACK FOR
TD 19W IS TO THE WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST IN THE NEAR TERM, WITH A
MORE NORTHWESTERLY TRACK AFTER TAU 48. TD 19W IS FORECAST TO REACH
TYPHOON STRENGTH AFTER TAU 72. IT IS WORTH REPEATING THAT THERE ARE
LIMITED NUMERICAL VORTEX TRACKERS AVAILABLE FOR THIS SYSTEM,
INCREASING FORECAST UNCERTAINTY.
137
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WPAC: TD19W (Pre-PEPENG) could be another big-boy - JAC, 9/28/2009, 8:15 am
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