Now a TS, Anti-cyclone to the NE - shoving shear out of the wave
Posted by JAC on 9/28/2009, 12:55 pm
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/4kmsrbdc_loop.asp?storm_identifier=WP192009&starting_image=2009WP19_4KMSRBDC_200909272130.jpg



WTPN33 PGTW 281500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 19W (NINETEEN) WARNING NR 004    
  UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W
  03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
  MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
  WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   ---
  WARNING POSITION:
  281200Z --- NEAR 9.3N 142.8E
    MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
    POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
    POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
  PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
  MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
  WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
  REPEAT POSIT: 9.3N 142.8E

WDPN33 PGTW 281500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 19W WARNING NR 04//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 19W (NINETEEN) HAS TRACKED WESTWARD OVER THE
PAST 12 HOURS AS SEEN IN ANIMATED INFRARED AND MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY. OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS THE SYSTEM HAS INTENSIFIED
TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 2.5 FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. A
280832Z QUIKSCAT IMAGE SHOWING 25 TO 35 KNOTS AROUND THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) CONFIRMS THE INITIAL INTENSITY. THE SYSTEM
REMAINS SOUTH OF THE STEERING RIDGE CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST, AND
IS IN A REGION OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). OVER THE PAST
12 HOURS THE SEPARATION DISTANCE BETWEEN TS 19W AND TD 18W HAS
INCREASED TO 660 NM.
3. FORECAST REASONING
A. THE FORECAST REASONING FOR TS 19W HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY
SINCE THE LAST PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
B. IN GENERAL, THE FORECAST PROCESS FOR TS 19W REMAINS COMPLICATED
BY A LACK OF RELIABLE MODEL GUIDANCE AND PROXIMITY TO TD 18W (THE
INCREASING SEPARATION DISTANCE HAS NOT BEEN REFLECTED IN NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE YET). THE MODEL GUIDANCE THAT IS AVAILABLE IS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT WITH A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 48,
WITH A MORE POLEWARD TRACK THEREAFTER. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS ALSO
LIMITED, WITH THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INDICATING STEADY
INTENSIFICATION THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, MODEL GUIDANCE IS LIMITED TO EGRR AND THE
ECMWF MODEL FIELDS, WHICH BOTH SUPPORT THE NORTHWESTWARD TURN ALONG
THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 80 KNOTS UNDER FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS. STIPS INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE INTENSITY
FORECAST. IT IS WORTH RE-EMPHASIZING THE POORLY-INITIALIZED MODELS
AND PROBLEMS RESOLVING BOTH TD 18W AND TS 19W AS SEPARATE SYSTEMS
AND DETERMINING WHICH SYSTEM WILL DOMINATE. THE INCREASING
SEPARATION DISTANCE BETWEEN TD 18W AND TS 19W WILL RESOLVE THE
CURRENT ISSUES WITH NUMERICAL MODEL RESOLUTION OF THE TWO SYSTEMS.//
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WPAC: TD19W (Pre-PEPENG) could be another big-boy - JAC, 9/28/2009, 8:15 am
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