TCFA
Posted by
JAC on 10/8/2009, 7:11 am
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.3N 143.4E TO 19.1N 142.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
080200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N
143.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.2N
143.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 143.3E, APPROXIMATELY 120 NM
NORTHWEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
A 072031Z SSMI IMAGE INDICATE A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING AND
DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A 072046Z QUIKSCAT
IMAGE INDICATES 15 TO 20 KNOT UNFLAGGED WINDS AROUND A SYMMETRIC
LLCC WITH STRONGER WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY DEPICTS FAIR OUTFLOW INTO A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
TROUGH (TUTT) CELL TO THE NORTH WITH WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
DIFFLUENT SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE LLCC. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 090230Z.//
NNNN
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In this thread:
Next WPAC Bad-Boy: 92W -
JAC,
10/7/2009, 11:53 am- TS Nepartak - JAC, 10/9/2009, 9:42 am
- Three high rollers - JAC, 10/8/2009, 9:24 pm
- Now TD21W - JAC, 10/8/2009, 9:34 am
- TCFA - JAC, 10/8/2009, 7:11 am
- Re: Next WPAC Bad-Boy: 92W - hanna, 10/7/2009, 9:41 pm
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