Possible Severe System for MS-Valley/Midwest around the Weekend
Posted by JAC on 10/26/2009, 3:53 pm
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
  NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
  0329 AM CDT MON OCT 26 2009
 
  VALID 291200Z - 031200Z
 
  ...DISCUSSION...
 
  LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT REGARDING THE
  SPEED/MOVEMENT OF UPPER LOW EJECTING FROM THE CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES NEWD
  INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY REGION DURING THE DAY4-5 TIME FRAME.
  BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSLATE
  THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH INTO THE MS VALLEY WHERE DEEPENING OF
  THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE NOTED THROUGH A DEEP LAYER.  WITH
  MOISTURE/INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO RETURN ACROSS THE SCNTRL
  U.S...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD READILY DEVELOP ALONG ADVANCING COLD
  FRONT ACROSS OK/TX DAY4...THEN SHIFT EWD INTO THE MS VALLEY DAY5
  WHERE FRONTAL INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED.  IF SUFFICIENT
  INSTABILITY CAN RETURN TO IL/IND ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
  LIKELY OCCUR AS INTENSE HEIGHT FALLS/FORCING WILL BE NOTED ACROSS
  THIS REGION.
 
  ..DARROW.. 10/26/2009












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Possible Severe System for MS-Valley/Midwest around the Weekend - JAC, 10/26/2009, 3:53 pm
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