Significant Winter Storm West of MS-River
Posted by
JAC on 10/28/2009, 8:35 am
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 431 AM EDT WED OCT 28 2009 VALID 12Z WED OCT 28 2009 - 00Z FRI OCT 30 2009 WHILE MOST AREAS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE SAME WILL NOT HOLD TRUE FROM THE PLAINS WESTWARD. A STRONG UPPER TROUGH HAS DESCENDED ALL THE WAY INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM TO MUCH OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND UP INTO THE LARAMIES IN SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. EVENTUALLY THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD INTO NEBRASKA AND UP INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS A PIECE OF ENERGY SPLITS OFF FROM THE UPPER LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO PUSH THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. A COMMA-HEAD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO WRAP AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW CENTER WHICH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY FAIRLY GUSTY WINDS. THIS IS FORECAST TO DROP SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. THE COMBINATION OF THE EXPECTATIONS OF HEAVY SNOWFALL WITH THE VAST WIND FIELD MAY CREATE CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS FOR TRAVEL ACROSS THE REGION. BY FRIDAY MORNING...THE WEATHER SYSTEM WILL HAVE REACHED THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WILL THEREBY PUT AN END TO MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS. IN THE WAKE...EXPECT THERE TO BE A DECENT SNOW COVER OVER THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHICH WILL GREATLY BENEFIT THE LOCAL SKI RESORTS.
THE OTHER ASPECT OF THIS DYNAMIC SYSTEM IS THE HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY...A RICH PLUME OF GULF MOISTURE WILL INTERACT WITH THE APPROACHING COLD AIR MASS TO HELP PRODUCE MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY TAKE ON A SEVERE NATURE WITH THE BIGGEST THREAT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...AND SPREADING INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY THE FOLLOWING DAY. IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH MAY INCLUDE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS ALSO A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND UP INTO THE OZARKS MAY PRODUCE FLOODING ON THURSDAY AS DEPICTED BY THE HPC EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FORECAST.
ELSEWHERE...AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY IS HELPING PRODUCE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THE HIGHLY PROGRESSIVE DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH OFFSHORE BY LATE WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL BRING AN END TO THE RAINFALL BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL THEN DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK ACROSS THE EAST COAST WHICH WILL BRING TRANQUIL CONDITIONS TO THE MUCH OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION.
RUBIN-OSTER
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In this thread:
Possible Severe System for MS-Valley/Midwest around the Weekend -
JAC,
10/26/2009, 3:53 pm- Dallas could be under the gun Thursday morning - JAC, 10/28/2009, 9:55 am
- Significant Winter Storm West of MS-River - JAC, 10/28/2009, 8:35 am
- Weather Bomb... - Anung Mwka, 10/27/2009, 7:57 pm
- HPC Discussion - JAC, 10/27/2009, 2:51 pm
- Dang! - JAC, 10/27/2009, 1:08 pm
- Re: Possible Severe System for MS-Valley/Midwest around the Weekend - Anung Mwka, 10/27/2009, 7:52 am
- Re: Possible Severe System for MS-Valley/Midwest around the Weekend - Conclue, 10/26/2009, 11:04 pm
- Re: Possible Severe System for MS-Valley/Midwest around the Weekend - skip_wiley, 10/26/2009, 8:06 pm
- Re: Possible Severe System for MS-Valley/Midwest around the Weekend - Conclue, 10/26/2009, 7:51 pm
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