CaneTalk: Recon tasked for Wednesday

Recon tasked for Wednesday

Posted by JAC on 11/3/2009, 10:31 am

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EST TUE 03 NOVEMBER 2009
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 04/1100Z TO 05/1100Z NOVEMBER 2009
TCPOD NUMBER.....09-159

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (EAST OF COSTA RICA)
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 70
A. 04/2000Z
B. AFXXX 01DDA INVEST
C. 04/15151Z
D. 11.0N 82.0W
E. 04/1930Z TO 04/2230Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: BEGIN 12-HRLY FIXES
AT 05/1800Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.

In this thread:

GFS has Panama Yellow Box moving north into West Carib - JAC, 11/3/2009, 6:30 am

JAC.......... - Doorman, 11/3/2009, 5:37 pm
- Re: JAC.......... - JAC, 11/3/2009, 9:12 pm
Maybe a Hot Tower - JAC, 11/3/2009, 3:43 pm
- Lastest about 1 hr - relatively small - JAC, 11/3/2009, 3:57 pm
Recon tasked for Wednesday - JAC, 11/3/2009, 10:31 am
Not bad warm-core with good inversion - JAC, 11/3/2009, 9:32 am
Possible EPAC TC could develop & affect UL Winds - JAC, 11/3/2009, 9:21 am
- I'll bet 97L wins - JAC, 11/3/2009, 10:09 am
  - Re: I'll bet 97L wins - BobbiStorm, 11/3/2009, 4:09 pm
    - Cirrus canopy building nicely - JAC, 11/3/2009, 4:23 pm
    - Getting small deep burst nearly the LLC center - JAC, 11/3/2009, 4:19 pm
      - Waiting for core to heat up - JAC, 11/3/2009, 4:20 pm
Re: GFS has Panama ORANGE Box moving north into West Carib - BobbiStorm, 11/3/2009, 8:53 am
- The LL Vorticity & Anti-cyclone are developing nicely - JAC, 11/3/2009, 9:08 am
  - 30 to 40 knot UL Jet along 15N enhancing Poleward Outflow Channel - JAC, 11/3/2009, 12:40 pm
Invest 97L Up - JAC, 11/3/2009, 7:46 am
- Early Guidance takes it into Nicaragua - JAC, 11/3/2009, 8:56 am
  - 12Z GFDLshows Cat1 near Caymans - JAC, 11/3/2009, 12:56 pm
    - Re: 12Z GFDLshows Cat1 near Caymans - JAC, 11/3/2009, 3:10 pm
  - Analogs - JAC, 11/3/2009, 10:55 am
  - Intensity - JAC, 11/3/2009, 10:53 am
  - NAM: A different track & strengthening - JAC, 11/3/2009, 10:45 am
    - MM5E agrees - JAC, 11/3/2009, 10:51 am
  - 06Z GFS runs it into the Yucatan - JAC, 11/3/2009, 9:18 am
- Some small overshooting cu-nim's - JAC, 11/3/2009, 8:32 am
  - Good solid cell - JAC, 11/3/2009, 8:34 am
    - Poppin & spinnin on high-res vis - JAC, 11/3/2009, 8:39 am
- SHIPS: Moderate Shear Forecast, 34% Chance of RI - JAC, 11/3/2009, 8:02 am
  - Good opportunity for intensification if takes GFS track - JAC, 11/3/2009, 8:16 am
Anti-cyclone forecasted to remain intact and push shear out of the way - JAC, 11/3/2009, 7:44 am
Euro moves it into the GOM - JAC, 11/3/2009, 7:24 am
- CMC pushes it west, NAEFS hasn't bought in - JAC, 11/3/2009, 8:07 am
Just went Orange - JAC, 11/3/2009, 7:01 am
- ASCAT: 20 to 25 knt in-the-clear barbs - JAC, 11/3/2009, 7:04 am
Amplifying on MIMIC-TPW - JAC, 11/3/2009, 6:37 am
- Nice Spin - JAC, 11/3/2009, 6:59 am
- Anti-cyclone Overhead - JAC, 11/3/2009, 6:38 am

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