SPC Discussion
Posted by JAC on 11/20/2009, 6:25 am
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
  NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
  1124 PM CST THU NOV 19 2009
 
     
  ...WESTERN GULF COAST...
 
  POSITIVE TILTED UPPER TROUGH LOCATED OVER NM/WEST TX WILL GRADUALLY
  SHIFT EAST ACROSS TX AS STRONGEST MID LEVEL FLOW...H5 SPEEDS ON THE
  ORDER OF 50KT...ROTATES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH INTO THE NWRN
  GULF OF MEXICO.  THIS LOW LATITUDE SPEED MAX WILL ENSURE THE PRIMARY
  BAROCLINIC ZONE BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE NRN GULF OF
  MEXICO...CONSIDERABLY SOUTH OF THE LA COAST DURING THE LATTER HALF
  OF THE PERIOD.  PRIOR TO SFC CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SOUTH TX COAST...A
  CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING WITHIN
  MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS OF TX.  SFC DEW
  POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70F...AND OVERALL MOISTURE
  CONTENT...HAVE RETURNED TO THE LOWER-MIDDLE TX COAST.  THIS AIRMASS
  WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SFC-BASED CONVECTION WITHIN A WARM ADVECTION
  REGIME CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING WEAK SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT.  THERE
  APPEARS TO BE AT LEAST A LOW PROBABILITY FOR ISOLATED HAIL/WIND OR
  EVEN A TORNADO WITHIN THE STRONGEST SUPERCELLS...HOWEVER COVERAGE OF
  SEVERE SHOULD PROVE INADEQUATE FOR A SLIGHT RISK.
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Possible Nor'easter & Negative-Tilted Shortwave Combo early next week - JAC, 11/19/2009, 7:11 am
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