HPC Discussion
Posted by JAC on 11/20/2009, 6:38 am
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
359 AM EST FRI NOV 20 2009

VALID 12Z FRI NOV 20 2009 - 00Z SUN NOV 22 2009

A SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE PUSHING EASTWARD UNDER THE BIG BEND
OF TEXAS IS EXPECTED TO BE A HEAVY RAINFALL PRODUCER ACROSS THE
WESTERN GULF COAST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE SLOWLY EDGING
EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST BY THAT EVENING. A STRONG
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO IS DRAWING AN
ANOMALOUSLY LARGE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE INTO THE WESTERN GULF COAST
STATES. AS THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARY INTERCEPTS THIS PLUME
OF MOISTURE...FURTHER ENHANCEMENT IN THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS TO BE EXPECTED. THE SEVERE POTENTIAL IS FORECAST TO BE
MINIMAL WITH THIS WEATHER SYSTEM...BUT FLOODING IS A DEFINITE
CONCERN GIVEN THE LARGE AMOUNTS OF RAIN EXPECTED IN A SHORT TIME
SPAN. IN PARTICULAR...THE HPC EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FORECAST HAS
OUTLINED THE HIGHEST RISK FOR FLOODING ACROSS COASTAL SOUTHEAST
TEXAS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. ONCE THIS ENTIRE WEATHER SYSTEM
MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...A DRIER AIR MASS WILL
SETTLED IN ACROSS THE STATE OF TEXAS WITH NOT MUCH CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND.


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Possible Nor'easter & Negative-Tilted Shortwave Combo early next week - JAC, 11/19/2009, 7:11 am
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