Latest discussion from NWS NY
Posted by Fred on 12/19/2009, 5:44 pm
HEAVY SNOW BANDS OVER SE PA AND DELMARVA PER OBS/RADAR ATTM WILL
MOVE INTO NYC METRO AND LONG ISLAND TONIGHT...AND THEN PIVOT EAST
ACROSS LONG ISLAND/CT OVERNIGHT AS INTENSE LOW PRESSURE E OF THE
DELMARVA MOVES TOWARD 39N 70W...A POSITION IDEAL FOR HEAVY SNOW IN
NYC AND LONG ISLAND. VERY STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING PLUS
NEGATIVE EPV PER MODEL FCST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT SNOWFALL RATES OF
2-4 INCHES PER HOUR AS WELL AS THUNDER AND LIGHTNING...FROM LATE
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. WITH QPF OF 0.5-1.0 INCH NORTH/WEST OF
NYC AND UP TO 1.5 INCHES ELSEWHERE...PLUS SWE RATIOS APPROACHING
15-1...HAVE BUMPED UP ACCUMULATIONS ALL ACROSS THE BOARD...WITH
EXTENSION OF WARNINGS INTO ORANGE/PUTNAM WHERE 5-10 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS RAMP UP FROM THERE SOUTH/EAST TO
10-15 INCHES FOR NYC AND IMMEDIATE NORTHERN/WESTERN SUBURBS...TO
15-20 INCHES FOR MUCH OF OF LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST CT.
SOME SPOTS COULD PICK UP AS MUCH AS 2 FT OF SNOW...MOST LIKELY
THIS APPEARS TO BE SOMEWHERE ACROSS NASSAU(THIS IS ME!!!!) AND WESTERN/CENTRAL
SUFFOLK COUNTIES UP INTO COASTAL NEW LONDON COUNTY...BUT 18Z RUC13
GIVE ME SOME CONCERN THAT THIS COULD EXTEND INTO AREAS FARTHER
NORTH/WEST INCLUDING NYC AS WELL. WILL CLOSELY MONITOR WITH
FREQUENT UPDATES TONIGHT.

WINDS PICKING UP AND NOW GUSTING TO 25-30 KT ALONG THE COAST.
STRONG PRESSURE FALLS AND TIGHT GRADIENT TONIGHT WILL HAVE WINDS
INCREASING ALONG THE COAST TO 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 40
MPH. HAVE CONTINUED BLIZZARD WARNING AS IS ACROSS LONG ISLAND...
WHERE WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED. NEAR BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN NYC METRO AND COASTAL
CT. HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN WARNED AREA
EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AS TEMPS DROP
INTO THE 20S. SNOW WILL BE TAPERING OFF IN MOST SECTIONS EXCEPT
EASTERN LI/CT LATE TONIGHT...BUT STRONG WINDS ELSEWHERE WILL STILL
PRODUCE CONSIDERABLE BLOWING/DRIFTING OF SNOW.
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Blizzard Watch for Long Island!!!! - chriswx, 12/18/2009, 7:31 am
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