Long Island Under-the-Gun
Posted by JAC on 12/19/2009, 8:42 pm


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2262
  NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
  0625 PM CST SAT DEC 19 2009
 
  AREAS AFFECTED...NJ...SERN PA...NRN DE...SRN NY...CT...RI...SRN MA
 
  CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
 
  VALID 200025Z - 200530Z
 
  HEAVY SNOW WITH RATES OF 1 TO 2 IN/HR WILL PIVOT NEWD FROM THE
  MID-ATLANTIC INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH 06Z. THE MOST PERSISTENT
  AREA OF HEAVY SNOW SHOULD LIE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NEW YORK CITY
  METRO AREA...LONG ISLAND AND CT...WITH LOCALIZED RATES EXCEEDING 2
  IN/HR AT TIMES. OCCASIONAL BLIZZARD CONDITIONS SHOULD COMMENCE
  ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF LONG ISLAND AND SRN CT/RI/MA.
 
  984 MB SURFACE CYCLONE CENTERED AROUND 150 SM E OF THE DELMARVA
  PENINSULA HAS REMAINED NEARLY STEADY-STATE OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS.
  NEVERTHELESS...AFTERNOON MODEL FORECASTS ARE CONSISTENT THAT
  DEEPENING OF THIS LOW WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE 00-06Z PERIOD AS THE
  MID-ATLANTIC SHORT WAVE TROUGH AMPLIFIES. THIS WILL LEAD TO
  STRENGTHENING OF MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND ISENTROPIC
  ASCENT...COINCIDENT WITH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER...DEVELOPING
  NEWD INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND. AS A RESULT...ONGOING MODERATE TO HEAVY
  SNOW FALLING ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR FROM THE WASHINGTON D.C. TO NEW
  YORK CITY METRO AREAS WILL PIVOT NEWD. PERSISTENT SNOWFALL RATES OF
  1 TO 2 IN/HR WILL BE LIKELY FROM NJ NEWD INTO CT/RI THROUGH
  06Z...WITH EMBEDDED BANDS SUPPORTING RATES BRIEFLY EXCEEDING 2
  IN/HR.
 
  AS THE OFFSHORE CYCLONE DEEPENS AND SLOWLY TRACKS NEWD...TIGHTENING
  OF THE LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN N/NELY SURFACE
  FLOW. FREQUENT GUSTS AOA 35 MPH SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO THE ERN
  PORTION OF LONG ISLAND INTO COASTAL CT/RI AND FAR SRN MA...SUPPORTED
  BY 15Z SREF GUIDANCE. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO THE COMMENCEMENT OF
  BLIZZARD CONDITIONS /ESPECIALLY TOWARDS 06Z/ AS HEAVIER SNOW
  OVERSPREADS THIS REGION.
 
  ..GRAMS.. 12/20/2009
 
 
  ...NOTICE...
  SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
  SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
  TIMES A DAY...AROUND 00 UTC...06 UTC...12 UTC...AND 18 UTC
  FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.
 
  ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...
 
  LAT...LON   41757040 41277122 40517312 40307364 38927489 39137558
              39747596 40647533 41517433 42147307 42287187 42067084
              41757040
 
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Blizzard Watch for Long Island!!!! - chriswx, 12/18/2009, 7:31 am
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