A significant warm up and then blast of artic air from north - a deadly combo
Posted by
JAC on 1/9/2010, 7:26 pm
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
229 PM EST SAT JAN 09 2010
VALID 12Z TUE JAN 12 2010 - 12Z SAT JAN 16 2010
THE PACIFIC ENERGY REACHING CA ON WEDNESDAY WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST
INTO NORTHERN MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST TX BY FRIDAY WHERE A LARGE
CLOSED UPPER SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO FORM. THE 00Z AND 12Z/09 MODELS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THIS CLOSED UPPER SYS WILL TRIGGER
SIGNIFICANT SFC CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE WRN/CNTRL GULF OF MEXICO FOR
FRIDAY/SATURDAY DAYS 6/7....WITH HEAVY OVERRUNNING PCPN TO ITS
NORTH. 12Z/09 DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN QUITE GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THEIR LOCATION OF THE UPPER LOW SOUTH OF BIG BEND FOR FRIDAY
DAY 6...ALTHOUGH THE 12Z GFS WAS BRIEFLY ON THE FAST SIDE OF THE
ENVELOPE OF SOLUTIONS FOR THURSDAY. LATEST 00Z/09 ENSEMBLE
SPAGHETTI PLOTS SUPPORTED MOVING THE LARGE CLOSED UPPER SYS ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO AT THE SLOWER SPEED OF THE DETERMINISTIC 00Z/09
GFS AND ECMWF MODELS FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK
MODELS ARE STILL INDICATING A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP FROM THE PLAINS
TO THE MID ATLC AND SOUTHEAST ONCE THE ERN 500MB TROUGH EXITS THE
COAST ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER...OUR PREFERRED 12Z/09 ECMWF BRINGS A
SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN STATES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF
PCPN IN THE SERN STATES INTERACTS WITH THE SRN FRINGE OF THE
ARCTIC AIR LATER NEXT WEEKEND SOMEWHERE FROM THE THE OH/TN VLY
EASTWARD TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.
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