Looks like worst part will remain off-shore
Posted by JAC on 1/13/2010, 6:15 am





DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
  NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
  0159 AM CST WED JAN 13 2010
 
  VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
 
  ...SYNOPSIS...
  THE EASTWARD ACCELERATION OF THE CLOSED LOW...WITHIN AN AMPLIFIED
  TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF A PERSISTENT SPLIT UPPER FLOW...
  MAY BE A BIT SLOWER OUT OF THE MEXICAN PLATEAU THAN EARLIER
  ANTICIPATED.  BUT...THIS FEATURE STILL APPEARS LIKELY TO REMAIN
  PROGRESSIVE...AS MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER VERY STRONG ZONAL PACIFIC
  JET NOSING TOWARD THE PACIFIC COAST DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
  THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS PROGGED TO GRADUALLY MIGRATE INTO/
  THROUGH THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND WESTERN GULF COAST REGION
  LATE FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LARGE-SCALE FORCING CONTRIBUTING TO
  A DEVELOPING FRONTAL WAVE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.  SUBSTANTIAL
  CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS POSSIBLE...BUT PRIMARILY IN THE
  PROXIMITY OF THE WARM SECTOR...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE
  OPEN WATERS OF THE WESTERN THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN GULF.
 
  ...TEXAS COAST...
  GENERALLY WEAK DESTABILIZATION...PARTICULARLY INLAND OF COASTAL
  AREAS...IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A LIMITING FACTOR CONCERNING THE RISK
  FOR SEVERE STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD.  BUT AN AREA OF ENHANCED
  FORCING/SHEAR...WHICH MAY IMPACT PARTS OF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST BY
  12Z FRIDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN INITIAL SPEED MAXIMUM ROUNDING THE
  LOW...MAY LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING.  ONE OR TWO STRONG/MARGINALLY
  SEVERE STORMS IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ...AND COULD REMAIN A
  POSSIBILITY INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE THE FRONTAL WAVE BEGINS TO
  EVOLVE OFFSHORE.
 
  ..KERR.. 01/13/2010
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Maybe severe weather along GOM Coast late next week. - JAC, 1/8/2010, 11:56 am
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