From: Bevans777
Date: 5:57 AM
Good Morning,
There's still some rain and snow occurring in the Northeast early this morning, as the first in a series of
what will be two storms pushes Atlantic moisture into the region... Although surface winds around much
of southern New England and in the N.Y.C. Metro Area have been out of the northeast, the temperature
has risen by a couple of degrees since late last evening -- and it has effectively pushed a 'rain/snow
changeover line' to the north and west... Meanwhile, like we had said yesterday, rain, snow and whatever
'wintry mix' has been occurring across eastern Pennsylvania, Maryland, in South Jersey and across
Delaware has now just tapered to spotty drizzle... Therefore, its safe to say that along the I-95 corridor
between Philadelphia and D.C. -- today will be rather cloudy, but there won't be much more than a brief
period of rain or spotty drizzle... Conversely, there will be a persistent rain in Boston and all along the
New England Coast, while some heavy snow continues across upstate New York and in northern and
central New England... "Storm Number One" is on its way, and we're awaiting a much more powerful
"Storm Number Two"... This wave of low pressure will intensify rapidly off of the North Carolina Coast late
tonight, and it will spread snow and rain up the mid-Atlantic Coast tonight and tomorrow... We're
expecting whatever mixture of rain and snow late tonight and early Thursday to change to all snow, in fact
--- very quickly away from the immediate coast... As an upper-level low pressure system
interacts with the low pressure system close to the surface, colder air aloft and vigorous dynamics will
cause the precipitation to fall at an increasingly heavier rate by midday/early afternoon on Thursday... This
heavy snow should then last throughout Thursday night and it could even persist well into Friday across
much of southeastern New York, New Jersey and eastern Pennsylvania...
The biggest question on everyone's minds is: "How much snow can we expect???" Our maps will break
down these thoughts, and I'll even provide some numbers at the end of this discussion... The real "wild
card" associated with this particular storm is the future track... Looking at the 00z G.F.S. for example,
the low pressure system will be jogging towards Nantucket and Cape Cod early Thursday night before it
retrogrades, or "backs up" towards New York City late Thursday night and Friday morning... If this were to
verify, snow would in all likelihood occur at the rate of greater than an inch per hour from New York City on
north and west... A tendency for the marine influence to push a 'rain/snow changeover', or 'mixing line'
westward across southeastern New England and Long Island is likely with the westward movement of
the low pressure system, but most of southeastern New York, northern New Jersey and northeastern
Pennsylvania would be in a good position to pick up a foot of snow or more... The Philadelphia Area (even
the Lehigh Valley) will be most likely on the "very outer fringe" of the heaviest snowfall Thursday night and
Friday... Regardless of whether or not there is six inches of snow or more, it'll still be very windy with
some gusts in excess of 40 mph possible... And Washington D.C. and Baltimore should be SPARED
THE WORST of the snowfall, a concept which is entirely new to them this season... The storm (and its
steadiest, heaviest snow) SHOULD start to wind down on Friday afternoon...
But as long as the low pressure system tends to linger, which is something we're anticipating Friday night
and Saturday, there could be a few additional snow showers at almost any time, accompanied by 40-45
mph wind gusts... Here are our current expectations of what snowfall accumulation will occur...
-- Poconos/Catskills, as well as Sussex and Warren counties in northwestern New Jersey >> 12-24 inches
-- The rest of northern New Jersey, the Hudson Valley, southwestern Connecticut and N.Y.C. >> Around 12 inches
-- The Lehigh Valley, northern Bucks County, PA and central New Jersey >> 6-12 inches
-- The Greater Philadelphia Area >> 4-8 inches
-- South Jersey and central Long Island >> 3-6 inches
-- Baltimore and southern Delaware (not enough precipitation to support a bigger storm) >>> 1-3 inches
-- The eastern third of Suffolk County on Long Island (some bigger mixing concerns) >> 1-3 inches
LET'S NOT FORGET, if the storm were to stall near the coast of New England Thursday night, it would
probably keep a rain/snow changeover line from pressing westward, and any prolonged
deepening/lowering of the surface pressures out over the Atlantic would cause even stronger winds!!! Wind
gusts of up to 60 or 70 mph, especially along the coast, are not entirely out of the question, along with
damage to trees and power lines, coastal flooding during the times of high tide and possible beach
erosion... Have a good day!!!
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