Re: 2/25 Morning update(local news station)
Posted by Fred on 2/25/2010, 3:47 pm
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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WELL-DEFINED RAIN/SNOW BOUNDARY ALONG A NORTH/SOUTH LINE THROUGH
QUEENS...THEN NORTHWARD ALONG THE NY/CT BORDER. HPN AND POINTS
WEST IN WESTCHESTER COUNTY HAVE GONE OVER TO SNOW. STEADY SNOW AT
CENTRAL PARK AND THE WESTERN HALF OF QUEENS...BUT STILL A MIX AT
JFK WITH EWR NOW MIXING SOME. COASTAL FRONT IS SHARPENING AS SEEN
IN THE SURFACE OBSERVATION WITH STRONG CONVERGENCE OBSERVED FROM
BUOY 44025 NORTH TO KFRG TO NEAR KDXR.

NORTHERN NJ IS ALL SNOW WHICH IS HEAVY AT TIMES. SNOWFALL RATES
WILL APPROACH 2-3 INCHES PER HOUR AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON WITH
EXCELLENT JET DYNAMICS AND EFFICIENT SNOW GROWTH.

ONE OF THE MANY CHALLENGES WITH THIS SYSTEM IS WHERE THE RAIN/SNOW
LINE MEANDERS. IN GENERAL..EXPECT LITTLE TO NO MOVEMENT FOR THE
AFTERNOON...THEN AN EASTWARD PROGRESSION TONIGHT. MANY LOCATIONS
IN THIS TRANSITION ZONE WILL GO BACK AND FORTH FROM RAIN TO
SNOW...WITH THE HEAVIER PCPN TENDING TO BE SNOW.

THE FORECAST MODEL CONSENSUS TRACK CONTINUES TO BRING THE SURFACE
LOW TOWARD CAPE COD THIS EVENING...THEN A SHARP TURN WESTWARD
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. OF NOTE IS THAT THE NAM AND GFS 12Z
OPERATIONAL HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A SLIGHTLY COOLER SOLUTION...WHICH
WOULD FAVOR SOMEWHAT HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM THE TRANSITION
ZONE AND POINTS WEST. THE MORNING UPDATE REFLECTS THIS
THINKING...BUT WARNING/ADVISORIES REMAIN THE SAME.

WITH DEEP MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND STRONG DYNAMICS (COUPLING JET
STRUCTURE.)...EXPECTING QPF AMOUNT OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED
HIGHER AMOUNTS.

RAIN...BRIEFLY HEAVY AT TIMES ACROSS EASTERN CT/LONG
ISLAND...ALTHOUGH WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW PERIODS OF
SNOW LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN THE HEAVIER BANDS.

HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH AND WEST...TO AROUND 40
ACROSS EASTERN LI.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
STRONG HEIGHT FALLS WITH THE UPPER LOW TRACKING JUST SOUTH
WILL ALLOW FOR COOLING OF THE VERTICAL TEMP PROFILE AND A
CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONAL
SIG SNOWFALL EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH SOME AREAS ACROSS EASTERN LI
AND SOUTHERN CT POSSIBLY NECESSITATING AN ADVISORY. FUTURE
SHIFTS WILL NEED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE EVOLUTION OF THE LOW AND
ITS TRACK WHICH WILL BE CRITICAL IN DETERMINING HOW THE RAIN/SNOW
LINE MIGRATES OVERNIGHT.

THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW SHOULD KEEP WINDS BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS. THERE WILL BE SOME GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH....BUT CONFIDENCE
OF THIS OCCURRING FOR A LONG PERIOD OF TIME IS LOW. WITH THE LOW
TRACK SO CLOSE...WINDS WILL VARY SIGNIFICANTLY IN BOTH DIRECTION
AND INTENSITY LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

THE OCCLUDED LOW REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE AREA ON FRI
WITH LINGERING LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWS. BY THE TIME THE EVENT
WINDS DOWN FRI EVE....THERE WILL BE ANYWHERE FROM 12 TO 16
INCHES NW OF NYC....7 TO 11 INCHES IN NYC METRO...AND 3 TO 6
INCHES ACROSS LI AND CT. LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE.
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Hype Cane or Real Bad Storm Thurs/Friday? - BobbiStorm, 2/23/2010, 9:10 pm
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