South FL could be under-the-gun this afternoon
Posted by JAC on 3/11/2010, 7:44 am






SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET LOCATED WITHIN THE DIVERGENT EXIT REGION OF A
  STRONG SUBTROPICAL UPPER JET IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EWD THROUGH THE
  NERN GULF AND THE FL PENINSULA THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL HELP
  TRANSPORT RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WITH UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS
  NEWD THROUGH THE PENINSULA. WEAK LAPSE RATES AND WIDESPREAD CLOUDS
  WILL LIMIT MLCAPE IN MOST AREAS TO BELOW 1000 J/KG. STORMS WILL BE
  ONGOING THURSDAY WITHIN THE BROAD ZONE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
  THETA-E ADVECTION OVER THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE GULF COASTAL STATES.
  THESE STORMS WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WITH
  LARGE LOW HODOGRAPHS SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. HOWEVER...THE
  ACTIVITY MAY BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED...WHICH ALONG WITH A THE MARGINAL
  THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WOULD SERVE AS A LIMITING FACTOR FOR
  SEVERE STORMS. A GREATER THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL MATERIALIZE
  AS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS EWD THROUGH THE FL PENINSULA WHERE INFLUX OF
  RICHER MOISTURE AND GRADUAL DESTABILIZATION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
  WILL OCCUR. LARGE HODOGRAPHS AND BULK SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A THREAT
  FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING
  WIND AND TORNADOES POSSIBLE.
 
  SEVERE THREAT MAY UNDERGO A TEMPORARY DECREASE THURSDAY
  EVENING...BUT MAY INCREASE AGAIN LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
  LOW-LEVEL JET REDEVELOPS OVER THE PENINSULA DOWNSTREAM FROM
  ADVANCING SRN STREAM IMPULSE.
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South FL could be under-the-gun this afternoon - JAC, 3/11/2010, 7:44 am
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