Possible Severe Weather 5/19-5/20 and then 5/23-5/24
Posted by JAC on 5/14/2010, 3:38 pm
A cut off low will come across CONUS from the west coast next week.

Looks like it may form a potent dryline along west/central TX and OK on Wednesday.

Could see a couple progressive days of severe weather as it heads to SE CONUS / FL area Wednesday and Thursday.

The huge west coast system could then move ashore and head east which may mean a major event around 5/23 and 5/24.

Stay tuned for more model info.

Here is HPC's latest discussion:



EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
126 PM EDT FRI MAY 14 2010

VALID 12Z MON MAY 17 2010 - 12Z FRI MAY 21 2010


UPSTREAM... THE MEAN NERN PACIFIC TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY SUN INTO MON
ALONG THE WEST COAST WITH THE SRN PORTION OF THIS TROF PUSHING
INLAND INTO THE GREAT BASIN TUE (DAY 4)..PUSHING SLOWLY EWD NEAR
FOUR CORNERS WED (DAY 5) AND SLOWLY EWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS
THU-FRI (DAYS 6-7). MOSTLY LIGHT TO MDT PCPN AMOUNTS WILL
ACCOMPANY THESE HEIGHT FALLS INLAND ACROSS CA...THE GREAT BASIN
AND INTO THE CENTRAL TO SRN ROCKIES MON-TUE.  MORE SIGNIFICANT
PCPN LIKELY TO BREAK OUT OVER THE SRN PLAINS BY LATE
TUE...CONTINUING INTO MID-LATE WEEK NEAR THE MEAN FRONT EXPECTED
TO LIE NW TO SE ACROSS THIS GENERAL AREA.  DEPENDING ON HOW SLOW
THE UPSTREAM CLOSED LOW MOVES...ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH HEAVY TO
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL MAY PERSIST INTO THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK.  THERE IS INCREASING MODEL SOLUTION VARIANCE WITH THE SPEED
OF THIS CLOSED LOW.  THE 00/12 UTC UKMET REMAIN THE MOST
PROGRESSIVE...WHILE THE 00 UTC ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN CLUSTERED MORE
ON THE SLOWER SIDE OF THE FULL ENVELOPE OF GUIDANCE. WE FAVOR THIS
TYPE OF SLOW SOLUTION GIVEN THE OVERALL AMPLITUDE OF THE FLOW.
ACCORDINGLY...AND CONSIDERING MAX HPC CONTINUITY...OUR MEDIUM
RANGE FORECAST SUITE REMAINS PRIMARILY DERIVED FROM A BLEND OF THE
00 UTC ECMWF AND A GRADUALLY INCREASING PORTION WITH TIME OF THE
ONLY SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN.  THIS BLENDED
SOLUTION ALSO ACTS TO SMOOTH OUT SOME OF THE MUCH LESS PREDICTABLE
SMALLER SCALE NOISE.






















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Possible Severe Weather 5/19-5/20 and then 5/23-5/24 - JAC, 5/14/2010, 3:38 pm
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