North TX, OK, & KS Under-the-Gun Wednesday
Posted by JAC on 5/18/2010, 7:14 am


DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
  NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
  0100 AM CDT TUE MAY 18 2010
 
  VALID 191200Z - 201200Z
 
  ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF WRN OK AND NW
  TX...
 
  ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN AND
  CNTRL PLAINS...
 
  ...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT BECOMING LIKELY ACROSS PARTS OF
  WRN/CNTRL OK AND NW TX WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
 
  ...SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS...
  AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IN THE CNTRL ROCKIES AND ASSOCIATED
  NEGATIVELY-TILTED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE HIGH
  PLAINS WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...A 35 TO 45 KT LOW-LEVEL JET
  WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED
  WITH THE JET SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS
  WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS NRN OK AND SRN KS WITH THIS CONVECTION
  MOVING NEWD AWAY FROM THE MODERATE RISK AREA BY AFTERNOON. THE
  LOW-LEVEL JET WILL HELP TRANSPORT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NWD SETTING UP
  A BROAD WARM SECTOR FROM THE ERN TX PANHANDLE EWD ACROSS OK AND
  NORTH TX. MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY SHOULD BE IN PLACE ALONG
  THIS CORRIDOR BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SFC-BASED THUNDERSTORMS
  INITIATING NEAR AND JUST NORTH OF A SFC LOW ACROSS THE ERN TX
  PANHANDLE MOVING INTO WRN OK. THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS
  THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS OF NORTHWEST TX AND MOVE EWD ACROSS NORTH TX
  BY EARLY EVENING.
 
  ETA-KF FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA ARE
  IMPRESSIVE SHOWING MLCAPE FROM 3000 J/KG IN WCNTRL OK TO 4000 J/KG
  ACROSS PARTS OF NW TX. IN ADDITION TO THE STRONG INSTABILITY...DEEP
  LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE 40 TO 45 KT WITH 850 TO 500 MB LAPSE
  RATES AROUND 7.5 C/KM. THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR
  SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL. IN ADDITION...THE NAM AND GFS
  SOLUTIONS DEVELOP A 30 TO 40 KT LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS
  WHICH WILL CREATE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR TORNADOES ESPECIALLY AS
  SUPERCELLS MATURE. A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES MAY DEVELOP
  DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH THE GREATEST
  POTENTIAL JUST TO THE WEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET MAX. SOME POTENTIAL
  SHOULD ALSO EXIST FOR A DAMAGING WIND EVENT AS STORMS CONGEAL ACROSS
  ECNTRL OK AND NCNTRL TX DURING THE EVENING. ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WITH
  LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO MAY DEVELOP SWD ALONG A
  DRYLINE IN WCNTRL TX WHERE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A VERY UNSTABLE
  AIRMASS WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
  RATES. SEVERE STORMS WITH A LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL
  ALSO BE POSSIBLE NWWD ACROSS SRN KS INTO FAR SE CO WHERE THE MODELS
  SHOW AMPLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY.
 
  SOME UNCERTAINTIES STILL EXIST WITH THE SCENARIO ABOVE. THE
  GFS...NAM AND ETA-KF SOLUTIONS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT CONCERNING
  THE LOCATION OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
  GFS MUCH FURTHER EAST. THE NAM INITIATES CONVECTION ALONG THE WRN
  EDGE OF INSTABILITY AND THIS SOLUTION SEEMS MOST REASONABLE.
  HOWEVER...BOTH SOLUTIONS MAY BE SOMEWHAT CORRECT WITH THE GFS
  FOCUSING MORE ON A SEVERE THREAT IN ERN OK AND THE ARKLATEX ON A
  WING OF WARM ADVECTION.
 
  ..BROYLES.. 05/18/2010



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Possible Severe Weather 5/19-5/20 and then 5/23-5/24 - JAC, 5/14/2010, 3:38 pm
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