Don't let the Shear Map fool you
Posted by
JAC on 6/14/2010, 11:50 am
I have seen this exact situation before.
This is particularly common in the NW Pac.
I have seen a number of times when a TC spins up in the Marianas and there is an apparant wall of of heavy shear to its NW..
It runs into that wall and instead off getting torn apart, it rapidly intensifies to Cat5.
Why?
Here's the reason; you have to look at the UL wind patterns in more detail.
If UL winds are blowing SW to NE on the NW side of a TC; it actually helps to ventilate the TC.
This is commonly called a poleward outflow channel.
As long as those UL winds stay far enough away from the LLC, then there is a good chance that development will occur; all other factors being equal.
That is indeed what is happening now with 92L.
I also checked latest guidance, and the average track has shifted somewhat more south than previous.
That increases the chances of having 92L stay within the optimum distance from the UL Jet to keep it healthy and perhaps growing.
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92L .. Early thoughts ... -
LawKat,
6/14/2010, 12:31 am Post A Reply
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