92L starting to get sheared out
Posted by Jake on 6/14/2010, 8:54 pm
The disturbance's window has begun to close this evening. As stated in my earlier post, a surge of strong mid-upper level easterlies  has reached the disturbance, thus choking the ventilation on the eastern quad. This combined with the TUTT to the west will shear the system NE ward tonight through tomorrow. By this time tomorrow evening, we will have a naked swirl gradually fading in the open atlantic.

Due to the position of the TUTT, I doubt this will have any chance of regeneration further west. Until the TUTT pulls north of the Carib, nothing will be able to form. The TUTT will be key this season as strong outflows will be established, until then we must wait. Just to early, but signs appear to favor an early start to the season.

Note: Outflow channels in the atlantic basin works quite differently than in the western pacific. The affects of the CONUS / S.AMERICA keep a stronger blocking TUTT for most of the season and its not until Aug/Oct that this progressive shear zone begins to favor these N and S outflow channels that intensify our Majpr canes; otherwise, we would be competing with the westpac for cyclone formation.
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In this thread:
92L Analysis - Jake, 6/14/2010, 11:50 am
  • 92L starting to get sheared out - Jake, 6/14/2010, 8:54 pm
  • Re: 92L Analysis - beachman80, 6/14/2010, 3:07 pm
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