Jim why is there so much hype!!!!
Posted by Jake on 6/23/2010, 3:06 pm
Jim, please correct me if I am wrong, but why are so many here hyping a disturbance that doesn't even have a constant convection or anty defined structure, much less (ORGANIZATION OR SURFACE/MID LEVEL PHAZING WITH ANY CONVECTION). It's dooms day for the gulf every time a wave flares -up.

For whose that  haven't read my posts on 92L  AND 93L. See below!!!

Jim, we know each other for a very long time, if  Iam wrong on this let me know.

Posted by Jake on 6/22/2010, 12:24 am

The disturbance has maintained a decent structure this evening, but lacks a well defined surface /mid level circulation. This is a very important piece to the formation process. As with all tropical systems without a 925mb-850mb vorticity max, it's very difficult to fire large scale convective bursts. This will increase inflow and core heating and continue the cyclones veritical structure.

A thorough analysis of the system and surrounding atmosphric environment reveals a rather complex flow pattern. As deep layer mid-upper level easterlies are blowing across the eastern carib. In addition, the TUTT remains in place across the northern carib with yet another shear axis blowing westerly winds across the western/central carib. Lastly, a large upper high is centered a few hundred miles SE of the disturbance and not over the system, this is producing some SSW shear across the western quad of the disturbance with some outflow over the northern and eastern quad (Lacks outflow).

In conclusion, 93L will struggle the next few days as the above factors and possible interaction with the greater antilles will hold formation in check. As the sub-tropical ridge has a SE to NW mid level flow across the eastern carib which should force 93L towards a temporary NW motion before re-building and forcing a more WNW motion the next few days.

Note: would not be surprised if this remains a strong wave and nothing more.

Posted by Jake on 6/22/2010, 5:43 pm

The disturbance has become less organized during the afternoon. Thus the NHC has lowered formation percentage, this doesn't surprise me per my analysis last night.. The atmospheric conditions are marginal at best for the system to gather. The convective curveture seen on sat images is mostly on the northern quad of the disturbance. Upper level high as moved over and passed the mid-level circulation which is located just south of Hispaniola.

Formation outlook: The system is embedded in a deep layer southeasterly flow and this will force the the mid-level circulation inland. The interaction with said terrain will put an end to any formation of a surface circulation. However, life threatening mudslides and flooding rains will affect all of Hispaniola tonight thru tomorrow.

As to why this has not formed today, is mostly due to a weak 925-850mb vort max and a complex upper air pattern over the system. Several layers with height have different flows which restrict outflow/inflow, this tends to displace high base convection from any center that attempts to form and doesn't allow surface pressures to fall and build a central core with intense deep convection. This can't be accomplished without a strong 850mb vortex and displacement of 700-500mb vortex (No co-location in vertical structure).This is the most important machanism in a cyclones formation cycle, even when SST's are warm, deep layer moisture is plentiful and convergence/divergence is strong. In my opinion, the wave mostly flared up due to the interaction with the northern carib upper trough and a rapid slowing of the easterlies combined with tropical wave energy.

Lastly, we will continue to see a wave that flares up and down while struggling to gather in the coming days.  

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Jim why is there so much hype!!!! - Jake, 6/23/2010, 3:06 pm
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