Here's my post's on 92L
Posted by Jake on 6/23/2010, 3:41 pm
92L Analysis

Posted by Jake on 6/14/2010, 11:50 am

The disturbance is quite organized for this time of the year and especially in the central tropical atlantic. Morning sat images show some scattered convection mostly on the northern edge of where the low/mid level center was located. However, I don't see this becoming more than a TD or weak TS. This will be brief at best.

The disturbance is under a somewhat favorable upper level environment and SST are warm enough. However, the vortmax is mostly in the 850mb levels and lacks vertical structure above 700mb. This will decrease the inflow of latent heat and strength of high base convection.

Lastly, the most important part of this analysis is the proximity of the TUTT over the eastern carib and mid/upper level winds approaching the wave from the east. This wind surge conbined with the TUTT will shear 92L NE ward.

This season will be one to remember in my opinion, not yet.

92L starting to get sheared out

Posted by Jake on 6/14/2010, 8:54 pm

The disturbance's window has begun to close this evening. As stated in my earlier post, a surge of strong mid-upper level easterlies  has reached the disturbance, thus choking the ventilation on the eastern quad. This combined with the TUTT to the west will shear the system NE ward tonight through tomorrow. By this time tomorrow evening, we will have a naked swirl gradually fading in the open atlantic.

Due to the position of the TUTT, I doubt this will have any chance of regeneration further west. Until the TUTT pulls north of the Carib, nothing will be able to form. The TUTT will be key this season as strong outflows will be established, until then we must wait. Just to early, but signs appear to favor an early start to the season.

Note: Outflow channels in the atlantic basin works quite differently than in the western pacific. The affects of the CONUS / S.AMERICA keep a stronger blocking TUTT for most of the season and its not until Aug/Oct that this progressive shear zone begins to favor these N and S outflow channels that intensify our Majpr canes; otherwise, we would be competing with the westpac for cyclone formation.  

113
In this thread:
Jim why is there so much hype!!!! - Jake, 6/23/2010, 3:06 pm
< Return to the front page of the: message board | monthly archive this page is in
Post A Reply
This thread has been archived and can no longer receive replies.