Re: Part of confusion due to stupid "near 0% probability" labled with cautionary yellow circle
Posted by
Chris in Tampa on 7/5/2010, 9:51 pm
Actually, 95L seems to be skirting the coast at the moment on radar.
As for the percentage, I agree about the near 0%. There needs to be something better. Only one circumstance do I find the near 0% important and that is if they want to point out rain that might be a threat to Haiti for example and there is next to no chance of the area developing into a depression in the next 48 hours. It is useful also to point out areas that might have little chance now, but might have a much better chance after 48 hours. But, maybe they could simply say "Less than 10%" rather than near 0%. Or just fudge it and say 10%. Something, anything, than the near 0%. When did they ask for comments about that? They ask for commenting about so much else, but that is something they should have asked about.
They should have upgraded this to a depression or storm right after they put out the special TWO at 5:10PM EDT. It was too confusing. I guess a lot of media probably ignored it or it happened too fast to be too damaging to the NHC's reputation, but I do hope they are a little bit more on the same page next time. Because there seems like there will be a lot of next time's this season. |
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