Re: Any shift to the west LI is doomed
Posted by Gianmarc on 8/29/2010, 9:37 am
Agreed entirely. Marko, we see this sort of thing nearly every year--the storm that almost looks like the next northeast 'cane 7-10 days out and then when the models come into focus we see that it is just the latest in a VERY long line of almosts. It is nothing new and there is no indication that it is anything to get up in arms about.

Here's one thing I am sure of, though: When the next northeast 'cane does form and head that way, I absolutely believe that it will be apparent about a week in advance. We will see that classic convergence of an Ohio Valley trough in the forecast along with a building ridge out of the east as the 'cane splits the uprights between the two and gets squeezed toward the northeast. Most models will continue to show that scenario in run after run. The NHC will hedge their bets with suggestive discussions that do not commit to the actuality until it is safe for them to do so. And then it will happen.

We do not have that here. We have another close call and most models showing yet another recurving storm--another "almost." And given the implacable indifference and denial that most people have about hurricanes up there, that's a very good thing.
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Any shift to the west LI is doomed - MarkoNY, 8/29/2010, 8:49 am
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