I guess it's all in the interpretation
Posted by
CypressTX on 9/8/2010, 9:01 am
http://catalog.eol.ucar.edu/cgi-bin/predict/htmlwrap?file_url=/predict/report/weather/20100907/report.weather.201009071400.discussion.html
a snippet:
PGI38L: In the long range, the ensemble forecasts continue to
take PGI38L on a westerly track into the western Caribbean (not
shown) where Kerry Emanuel's maximum potential intensity is a
maximum (not shown). The intensity forecast from the ensemble
members range from a weak low pressure center to a strong Cat 4
storm by 120-h (not shown)representing a substantial
divergence in the ensemble member forecasts. The pouch products
indicate that PGI38L will continue southwestwardrather than
westward in the ensemble and weaken the system significantly
by 120-h. Beyond 120-h in the 1200 UTC 6 Sep GFS and ECMWF (not
shown), the disturbance completely dissipates over the western
Caribbean. |
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