Re: "Bias Vector" ? ?
Posted by
TuffyE on 9/13/2010, 9:31 pm
Thanks. That adds another entire set of info for me. I'll have to work on completely making sense of the graphics, but the x/y calculations and methodology are very interesting. I note in this information that the UK (from the graphics) and the ECMWF are not to be discounted, particularly at the longer forecast periods for the latter.
When I posted this question, I also sent an email version of it to the NHC Public Relations email address and received a reply within 2 hours. The reply was directly from the Branch Chief of the Hurricane Specialist Unit, Mr. James L. Franklin. I was very impressed and appreciative that he would take the time to address such a question from the public. For any that might make a negative of that, it was a very concise verification of my interpretation of the Bias Vector measurements and, I'm sure, did not interfere with his duties..
It seems that the forecasts do tend to err to the S or SE, surprising to me in the degree to which it is SOUTH. As noted in the 2009 Forecast Verification: "Vector biases were mostly southeastward (i.e., the official forecast tended to fall to the southeast of the verifying position) and were most pronounced at the longer lead times (e.g., the bias was about 70% of the mean error at 120 h)."
"Further and Faster" after all is said and done?
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"Bias Vector" ? ? -
TuffyE,
9/13/2010, 4:50 pm Post A Reply
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