Cut the Madness
Posted by JAC on 9/22/2010, 7:23 am
OK, here's the deal.

The models are not out of whack.

What is happening is GFS has been presistantly forecasting a cutoff low to form over the MS-Vally about the time 95L makes it into the west Carib.

This will cause 95L to make a sharp right-hand turn.

All NCEP esemble members are forecasting this.  No fluke here.

Exactly when is still up in the air.

There maybe a chance it could briefly go over Honduras but then turn north and redevelop in the west Carib.

This looks very likely to spinup strongly in the west Carib and move directly into the GOM.

Of course too early to tell where CONUS landfall will be.

95L is slowly organizing.

It has maybe another day or two to spinup.


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Cut the Madness - JAC, 9/22/2010, 7:23 am
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