I gotta stop going to work.... Miss 8 hours of canetalk...... you miss a lot! Always nice to see your take JAC!
Storm W's take:
It appears as of this mornings runs, the Global Models have come into better agreement on a possible track solution. Pretty much 2 scenarios hereone is, it continues on a more westerly track, and winds up with a brief encounter with central America IVO Nicaragua, stalls, then gets pulled toward the north, which is what most of the models are showing, but differ in whether or not it comes through the Yucatan Channel before going NNE, or if it crosses western Cuba first, then rides near the FL. east coast. The second scenario is, it begins a more WNW motion, and comes a little further north, almost to the central Caribbean, just clipping the Yucatan Peninsula, then entering the GOMEX.
There are quite a few factors involved, being mainly speed and timing of the features at play. I cannot rule out the second scenario right yet, as the steering flow ahead of 95L does change to a WNW flow, and the system could begin a WNW movement tonight. The steering forecast does indicate a more west flow in 24 hours, however, if this begins to head WNW, this motion, in as how far WNW it may move, will be critical as to when it feels the weakness from the forecast approaching trof. Analysis of the 500mb height and vorticity maps indicates, it's not whether or not one model shows a stronger trof than the other, as they pretty much now agree on the strength, but a matter of when it arrives in the position to induce the weakness.
Regardless, if this does not get well into the Nicaragua/Honduras area and dissipate, but just stalls shortly and begins to move northwe have the potential for a hurricane, with the potential for a major. Given the current and forecast position of the MJO, we should see this develop, and I wouldn't be surprised if we see another system not too much longer after 95L. |