Why Matthew becomes a Hurricane in 24hrs or less.
Posted by
Jake on 9/23/2010, 10:08 pm
The cyclone's presentation continues to improve this evening with strong rotation and plenty of banding features with deep convection. In addition, the ADT bulls-eye has a very strong convective burst which is expanding and cooling too -70 plus degrees. This is a sign of possible RI this evening as all parameters appear in place. Shear is low (explanding outflow), OHC very high, deep layer moisture, strong SW outflow channel and increasing NE outflow channel.
Matthew's upper air dynamics are still becoming more conducive and if the track listed below materializes, would not be surprised if this increased to a cat -2 or 3 in the next 48 hrs. However, any deviation to the south of this track would greatly hinder strengthening.
Ran some numbers and track on the center:
24hrs or 8pm tomorrow near 15.8N - 82W
36hrs or 6am Saturday near 16. 3N - 84..5W
These numbers were ran @ 280deg movement @ 16mph
Should this track verify it would keep the center over open water, with the southern portion of the core briefly overland. This would induce longer term intensification under a very favorable environment.
The upper air pattern is reminiscent of Hurricane Alex with a very large anticyclone, therefore all he needs is to stay over water. |
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Why Matthew becomes a Hurricane in 24hrs or less. - Jake, 9/23/2010, 10:08 pm Post A Reply
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