Re: Why Matthew becomes a Hurricane in 24hrs or less.
Posted by Arborist on 9/24/2010, 6:52 am
| The NHC intensity forecast: FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/0900Z 14.3N 79.8W 45 KT 12HR VT 24/1800Z 14.8N 82.0W 50 KT 24HR VT 25/0600Z 15.5N 84.5W 50 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 25/1800Z 16.2N 86.5W 50 KT...OVER WATER 48HR VT 26/0600Z 16.7N 87.9W 60 KT 72HR VT 27/0600Z 17.5N 89.5W 35 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 28/0600Z 18.5N 89.5W 30 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 29/0600Z 19.5N 89.5W 25 KT...INLAND They are bringing the center over land and (per nhc discussion) their track takes it across the Yucatan. The NHC also says: "THE LATTER PART OF THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES...AND LIKE THE TRACK FORECAST...IT IS OF LOW CONFIDENCE." It is going to be interesting to watch the actual track. Seems like a lot of uncertainty. If Jake's track forecast verifies, it could get ugly:  If it crosses the Yucatan, what condition is it in when it emerge in the BOC? Jake has definitely been on this storm from the start! |
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