Again Convection decreasing and a weaking Tomas
Posted by
hurricanephilip on 11/2/2010, 11:29 pm
| Tomas is again becoming tilted again it has had a very rough time in the warm carribbean waters, and as i tell everyone that always says but phil its over 86 degree waters ,,,if you dont have the upper dyanmics you can forget the intensification!!!! anyway Tomas may just suprise us as it makes its grand exit out and over Haiti and over the Turks and out of here later on the 5th or so as its possible it still may ramp up to a strong cat 1 storm, i still dont buy the gfdl or the hwrf going down to 939mb's and up to 120 knots like the gfdl showes. I think haiti will be hit with an intensifying TS or a modest cat 1 hurricane and that still could be enough to wreak havoc on haiti.....and with the I-ships model showing a 40percent chance of a 30 knot increase in about 36 hrs its still possible and i say possible we could even have a strong cat 1 or weak cat 2 headding for haiti....but since the convection has wained and the circulation has tilted and is now on the south side of the cyclone it will take a while for it to get back together....it is also unique to note that shear remains low, water temps remain high and upper air thermodyanmics remain proper so why it dosent strengthen is just one of GODs mysteries-lol......phil |
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Again Convection decreasing and a weaking Tomas - hurricanephilip, 11/2/2010, 11:29 pm Post A Reply
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