JAC...i got a small concern
Posted by
BobbiStorm on 11/3/2010, 11:49 am
when you watch the WV loop you see the upper level low digging into the Gulf and the set up changing a lot... Tomas much lower than he was supposed to be and moving more to the west and IF Tomas hangs in there or comes back to life I do believe he is going to end up threatening Cuba not Haiti
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-wv.html
This really does bother me as I have seen little discussion on options.
One of the things I love about Jim's update is that he gives options, he goes over the whole gamut of options... explains why he puts little belief in the outliers or why he goes along with the forecast.
The problem with the NHC is that they spend too much time trying to validate their old forecasts and not enough time with possibilities down the road that they cannot verify easily... rarely will they open a new door and they spend too much time trying to explain what they said before... as we all know weather is fluid and always changing.
This is why Jim does a better job than the NHC does even if he only does it once a day.
We are beyond blessed to have both of you here
now... do you see what I mean
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-wv.html
IF the forecast was a bust...throw it out and start over and see what could happen with what is |
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