" Possible" Major Eastcoast Blizzard
Posted by Fred on 12/22/2010, 9:47 am
Hope im not jinxing it..but could be looking at a major blizzard sun-tue time frame.EURO has been consistance on a major storm,but on the other hand the GFS has been consistance with an out to sea solution.EURO 975MB southeast of Long Island.UKIE has a 957mb bomb east of Boston!!!GGEM sub 970mb but out to sea,

Here is latest HPC disscussion

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
312 AM EST WED DEC 22 2010

VALID 12Z SUN DEC 26 2010 - 12Z WED DEC 29 2010


...EUROPEAN CENTRE GUIDANCE STAYS THE COURSE ON POWERFUL EAST
COAST STORM DECEMBER 26-27...

WILL STICK WITH THE CONSISTENT ECMWF FOR THE PRELIMINARY FRONTS
AND PRESSURES FOR DAYS 3-7. FOR THREE CONSECUTIVE MODEL
CYCLES...THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF HAS INDICATED A
MASSIVE...DEEP...SLOW-MOVING CYCLONE HUGGING THE CAROLINA AND MID
ATLANTIC COASTS THE TWO DAYS FOLLOWING CHRISTMAS. THE ECMWF AND
UKMET WERE THE FIRST OF THE GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODELS TO SWITCH FROM
TRACKING THIS WAVE ALONG 40N THROUGH THE MIDWEST...TO A SUPPRESSED
PATH ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. SINCE THIS BREAK-AWAY...THE UKMET
SPLIT OFF EVEN FARTHER SOUTH...WITH THE ECMWF LOCKING ONTO AN
EVOLUTION THAT TAKES THE DEVELOPING LOW TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
AND THEN SHARPLY UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE GEM GLOBAL FOLLOWED
THE EUROPEAN CENTRE TRACK ON ITS 00Z/21 RUN...BUT HAS SWUNG THE
SYSTEM OUT WIDER OVER THE ATLANTIC THE LAST TWO RUNS. THE GFS HAS
SHIFTED TO THE SOUTHERN ROUTE ACROSS THE GULF STATES ON ITS
CURRENT RUN...BUT LIKE THE GEM GLOBAL...DIRECTS THE CYCLONE WELL
SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS. THE ECENS MEMBERS HAVE AVERAGED
CLOSE TO THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF...WITH MANY MEMBERS FOLLOWING IT
EXACTLY...AND OTHERS TRACKING A BIT FARTHER OFFSHORE. THE
EUROPEAN CENTRE GUIDANCE HAS THE ADVANTAGE IN DEVELOPMENTAL
SYSTEMS WITH ITS HIGH RESOLUTION...AND IS FURTHER AIDED BY ITS
4D-VAR ANALYSIS IN GENERAL. ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE MORE HIGHLY
RESOLVED THAN THE GEFS MEMBERS...AND WITH DYNAMIC...DEVELOPMENTAL
SYSTEMS...THE EUROPEAN GUIDANCE SHOULD HAVE THE EDGE.
INDEED...THE GEFS MEAN HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY FLATTER WITH THE PATH
OF THE BIG STORM...WHICH IS CERTAINLY IN LINE WITH THE LOWER
RESOLUTION. EVEN SO...FOUR 00Z/22 GEFS MEMBERS STILL TRACKED
COMPARABLY TO THE ECMWF...SHOWING A DEEP NOREASTER AND A HIGH
IMPACT STORM FOR THE MAJOR METROPOLITAN AREAS ASTRIDE INTERSTATE
95 FROM WASHINGTON TO BOSTON. TO WIT...THESE GEFS MEMBERS ARE
GOING AGAINST THEIR LOWER RESOLUTION/LESS DEVELOPMENTAL NATURE.
THE ECMWF HAS MUCH CLIMATOLOGY ON ITS SIDE AS WELL...WITH ITS
TRACK WEST OF THE GULF STREAM...AND THE BOMBING PHASE NEAR AND
NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS.

THE MOST UNUSUAL...AND THREATENING...ASPECT OF THE ECMWF FORECAST
IS THE RELATIVELY LOW LATITUDE AT WHICH THE STORM MATURES AND
STALLS/LOOPS. MORE TYPICALLY...SYSTEMS WILL CLOSE OFF AND HOVER
OVER THE WATERS SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA...AS WITH THE MOST RECENT
CYCLONE STILL AFFECTING DOWNEAST MAINE. THE ECMWF SHOWS THE
UPCOMING CIRCULATION COMING TO A HALT JUST EAST OF THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA...WHICH PUTS THE VERY POPULATED AREAS OF THE EASTERN MID
ATLANTIC...LONG ISLAND...AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF HIGH WINDS AND HEAVY PRECIPITATION...MOSTLY SNOW. THE
EXTRAORDINARY NEGATIVE NAO THIS MONTH COULD CERTAINLY SUPPORT SUCH
AN ANOMALY. EVEN BEFORE THE RAPID DEEPENING PHASE OF THE
SYSTEM...AREAS OF THE DEEP SOUTH FROM THE INTERIOR GULF COAST
STATES TO GEORGIA AND THE MOUNTAINS AND PIEDMONT OF THE CAROLINAS
MAY SEE A VERY RARE WHITE CHRISTMAS...AGAIN...CONSISTENT WITH THE
REMARKABLE DISRUPTION AT HIGH LATITUDES.

WHILE THE EASTERN VORTEX RELOADS AND EXPANDS...THE FLOW STREAMING
OFF THE PACIFIC WILL BE LARGELY SHUNTED FARTHER NORTH THAN RECENT
DAYS...WITH THE POLAR JET TAKING AIM AT THE WASHINGTON COAST.
SOME FLOW WILL SPLIT INTO THE FAR SOUTHWEST...BUT WITH NOT NEARLY
THE ROBUSTNESS OF THE PAST WEEK.


CISCO
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" Possible" Major Eastcoast Blizzard - Fred, 12/22/2010, 9:47 am
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